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Crude Oil Prices Eye Chart Barrier as Markets Weigh Fed, ECB Policy

Crude Oil Prices Eye Chart Barrier as Markets Weigh Fed, ECB Policy

2019-08-20 05:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Crude oil up with stocks and bond yields, gold down, US Dollar up

Crude oil, gold price performance chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices edge up in risk-on trade, but key resistance held
  • API inventory flow data rounds out barebones economic calendar
  • Gold prices retreat as markets eye FOMC minutes, Jackson Hole

Friday’s risk-on sentiment tilt carried through Monday’s session, with crude oil prices rising alongside stocks. A parallel rise in bond yields undermined the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets and weighed on gold. Impressively, the US Dollar recovered some lost ground despite its recently anti-risk profile.

All the same, the benchmark commodities made little progress from near-term ranges, as expected. That seems to reflect traders withholding conviction ahead of critical event risk: minutes from July’s FOMC and ECB meetings as well as the Fed-hosted economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

The weekly API inventory flow report rounds out the barebones data docket. It will be sized up against expectations of a 1.22-million-barrel drawdown in US stockpiles expected to be reported in official EIA statistics due Wednesday. Absent dramatic deviation, a strong response from prices seems unlikely.

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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices edged lower toward swing low support at 1480.00. A daily close below that would bolster topping cues hinted in negative RSI divergence, exposing a more substantive barrier in the 1437.70-52.95 zone next. Swing high resistance is at 1535.03, with a weekly chart inflection level at 1563.00 lining up thereafter.

Gold price chart - daily

Gold price chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices remain pinned below resistance capping gains since late April, now at 58.30. A daily close above that targets the 60.04-84 zone. Alternatively, a move below the congestion area running down through 53.95 sets the stage to challenge support near the $50/bbl figure once again.

Crude oil price chart - daily

Crude oil price chart created using TradingView

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

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