Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices hit new 6-year high as US-China trade spat deepens
  • Crude oil prices fall in risk-off trade as global growth bets sour
  • Comments from Fed’s Bullard, API and EIA data on tap ahead

US-China trade war escalation dominated commodity price action yesterday. Markets panicked as Beijing moved to retaliate after US President Donald Trump pledged to extend tariffs to an additional $300 billion on Chinese imports, weakening the Yuan and telling state-owned enterprises to stop buying US agriculture products. The deepening spat between the world’s top-two economies bodes ill for global growth.

Gold prices surged as the capital poured out of riskier assets and into the perceived safety of government bonds, driving yields lower. That bolstered the appeal of non-interest-bearing alternatives epitomized by precious metals. Cycle-sensitive crude oil prices fell in the meanwhile, with the WTI benchmark tracking downward alongside the bellwether S&P 500 stock index.

FED’S BULLARD MAY SOUR MARKET MOOD, CRUDE OIL EYES EIA AND API REPORTS

Sentiment seems to have stabilized somewhat in Asia Pacific trade, but this seems corrective as the underlying issues bedeviling markets remain unresolved. A barebones data docket may put comments from St Louis Fed President James Bullard in focus. The markets may be disappointed if one of the FOMC’s most ardent doves seems measured relative to the ultra-accommodative priced-in outlook, souring the mood anew.

WeeklyAPI inventory flow data is due and will be weighed up against expectations of a 2.8-million-barrel drawdown. Meanwhile, the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report is also due to cross the wires might warn of ebbing demand amid slowing global growth even as US production hovers near record highs north of 12 million barrels/day

Get the latest crude oil and gold forecasts to see what will drive prices in the third quarter!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices advanced to challenge the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1470.68. A daily close above that exposes the 50% level at 1492.31. Alternatively, a move back below support-turned-resistance at 1439.14 sets the stage for a retest of the August 1 low at 1400.65.

Gold price chart - daily

Gold chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are in digestion mode near support-turned-resistance in the 54.72-56.09 area. A move lower form here sees initial support near the $50/bbl mark. Alternatively, a break above 56.09 exposes back-to-back falling trend line and inflection zone resistance running up through 60.84.

Crude oil price chart - daliy

Crude oil chart created using TradingView

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter