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Crude Oil and Gold Prices May Fall Further on BOE Rate Decision

Crude Oil and Gold Prices May Fall Further on BOE Rate Decision

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices fell as the Fed cooled rate cut bets, validating topping cues
  • Crude oil prices testing three-month trend resistance near $60/bbl mark
  • Risk appetite may sour as BOE warns on growth but holds back stimulus

Crude oil and gold prices fell as the Federal Reserve poured cold water on the markets’ ultra-dovish policy outlook even as it lowered the benchmark lending rate by 25bps, as expected. The WTI contract fell alongside stocks as rate cut bets evaporated, souring risk appetite. The yellow metal suffered as an upshift in yields and the US Dollar tarnished the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives.

More of the same may be ahead as the Bank of England issues its own policy decision. It will probably repeat concerns about slowing global growth even as it shies away from doing anything about them amid Brexit-linked uncertainty. Governor Carney and company probably want to save as much firepower as they can muster for a scenario where a no-deal exit from the EU sends the economy into a tailspin.

Get the latest crude oil and gold forecasts to see what will drive prices in the third quarter!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices broke downward after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern coupled with negative RSI divergence, as expected. Prices have now cleared support levels guiding upward progress since late May. This hints that the bias has shifted to favor the downside, putting a dense support bloc running down through 1346.75 in focus. Invalidating bearish cues requires a daily close above the July 19 high at 1452.95.

Gold price chart - daily

Gold chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices edged up to challenge resistance capping gains since late April. A daily close above it and the 60.04-84 congestion area that follows immediately thereafter exposes the 63.59-64.43 zone. Alternatively, a break below support at 54.72 targets the 49.41-50.60 region.

Crude oil price chart - daily

Crude oil chart created using TradingView

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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