News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Elon Musk remains a key catalyst of crypto volatility, illustrated again over the past week. Shiba Inu, the ‘Dogecoin killer’ slayed in Bitcoin blood bath. Get your market update from @Tams707 here:https://t.co/XSq0Z58Muq https://t.co/Xj3DDGDCAT
  • Crypto exchange Binance is said to face investigations from the Justice Department and IRS - Bitcoin back below 50,000
  • Slight jawboning from BoC Governor, however, CAD sees a muted reaction to the comment https://t.co/1enbIJhAX6
  • - If $CAD moves a lot higher it could have a material impact on our outlook and how we set monetary policy
  • - If $CAD continues to rise could be more of a headwind to export projections
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 91.09%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 68.92%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/uHjF1RXMxX
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Waller Speech due at 17:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-13
  • Macklem Q&A - Expect inflation to go up to 3% before pulling back - Would not over rotate on one month's inflation data
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.61% Silver: -0.06% Oil - US Crude: -3.58% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/cupf2HmOUY
  • The price of oil appears to be stuck within the opening range for May amid the failed attempt to test the March high ($67.98). Get #crudeoil market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/6r9Iger50J https://t.co/LC27xlCypr
Crude Oil Price Drop Breaks Key Support, Hints at Trend Reversal

Crude Oil Price Drop Breaks Key Support, Hints at Trend Reversal

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices fall with stocks as Trump fuels trade war fears
  • Gold prices swing lower on US retail sales data, USD strength
  • EIA oil inventory flow data, Fed Beige Book survey due ahead

Crude oil prices tumbled alongside stocks as President Donald Trump forced the spotlight back to the US-China trade war, saying more tariffs could be imposed against the East Asian giant “if he wanted”. This warned that a longer-lasting spat might hurt global growth further, cooling energy demand.

Oversupply considerations probably figured into the selloff too. US Secretary of State Pompeo signaled that an opening for a diplomatic solution to tensions with Iran has emerged. Meanwhile, API data showed US stockpiles shed a mere 1.4 million barrels last week.

Official EIA inventory figures are next on tap, with analysts expecting an outflow of 3.7 million barrels. A downside surprise echoing the API report may give oil prices another downward nudge. How broader sentiment figures into the equation – boosting or countering selling pressure – is unclear for now.

GOLD AT RISK IF US DOLLAR REGAINS HAVEN BID, FED BEIGE BOOK EYED

Gold prices swung lower as US retail sales topped forecasts, narrowly trimming Fed rate cut bets and sending Treasury bond yields upward. Not surprisingly, this undermined the appeal of the non-interest-bearing metal. Receipts added 0.4 percent, topping forecasts calling for a 0.2 percent rise.

A resurgent US Dollar added to gold’s woes, sapping demand for anti-fiat alternatives. The benchmark currency scored its largest daily rise in two weeks. Weakness in European currencies appeared to account for much of the move, driven by Brexit-related jitters and soggy economic data.

Another batch of dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell failed to lift gold prices, as expected. This adds the sense that dovish policy bets have lost the ability to drive USD selling. That might allow haven demand to drive USD gains – punishing gold – if the incoming Fed Beige Book survey warns of sluggish growth.

Get the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to see what will drive prices in the third quarter!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices continue to mark time in an increasingly narrow range below resistance clustered around the August 2013 high at 1433.85. A break upward opens the door for a foray to test above the $1500/oz figure. Back-to-back support levels run down through 1346.75, with a push below that probably needed to neutralize the near-term bullish bias.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices broke through support guiding them higher since mid-June, painting last week’s attempted uptrend resumption as a false breakout. The setup now suggests sellers have retaken the initiative, with a daily close below the support block running through 54.84 exposing the $50/bbl figure anew. Immediate resistance is in the 60.04-84 area.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES