Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.


  • Crude oil prices struggle as US inventories fall less than expected, exports rise
  • Gold prices retreat but soft services ISM data caps losses as bond yields drop
  • US market closures to reduce liquidity, might amplify any kneejerk volatility

Crude oil prices managed a tepid corrective rise following yesterday following the prior session’s potent downswing, echoing a broader risk-on tilt across financial markets. The move failed to gain substantive momentum however as EIA inventory flow data showed stockpiles shed a smaller-than-expected 1.085 million barrels last week. The Census Bureau also said US oil exports rose in May.

Gold prices were mired in consolidation mode in the meanwhile, digesting the previous day’s explosive gains. An early corrective pullback found support after the US services ISM gauge undershot forecasts as expected, putting growth in the economy’s largest sector at the weakest in two years. That nudged benchmark Treasury bond yields lower, putting a floor under the yellow metal but falling short of catalyzing gains.


Looking ahead, US exchanges will close for Independence Day holiday, draining liquidity levels. That might make for a quiet session ahead, putting the spotlight on Friday’s US jobs report as the next major inflection point. Diminished participation levels might amplify knee-jerk volatility if an unexpected headline roils markets however, warning investors to proceed with caution.

Get the latest crude oil and gold forecasts to see what will drive prices in the third quarter!


Gold prices are idling near resistance at 1433.85, the confluence of August 2013 high the underside of support-turned-resistance set from December 2016. A break above it confirmed on a daily closing basis opens the door for a test above the $1500/oz figure. Alternatively, a turn below rising trend support at 1392.81 targets a dense support bloc running through 1346.75.

Gold price chart - daily


Crude oil prices are digesting losses after breaching support at 57.24. The next downside barrier lines up in the 54.55-55.37 area, with a further push below that paving the way for a challenge of the 50.31-51.33 region. Alternatively, a reversal above resistance at 57.88 exposes the 60.39-95 zone anew.

Crude oil price chart - daily


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter