News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here: https://t.co/J8WZ1JYXnX https://t.co/4mDGc8Bfd5
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/7Yd5Tzua0d
  • Do you know the difference between investing and trading? Because while the goal might seem the same, they're very different things . Learn more here.https://t.co/fG6fNEPj9q https://t.co/A0W3CA5EWh
  • The Canadian Dollar remains supported amid elevated crude oil prices. Don’t be surprised if the Bank of Canada disappoints aggressive hawkish expectations. Earnings season is a wildcard. Get your weekly Loonie forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/iyb5OmW2S4 https://t.co/Oh35VUg9Gr
  • Rather than focusing on earning a specific number of pips per day, traders need to focus on what can be controlled. In trading terms this relates to following a strategy perfectly, with no emotion or hesitation. Learn more here: https://t.co/6ZH026QLRN https://t.co/jQ9HH9KuWy
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here: https://t.co/Blrl0uF2Ct https://t.co/VXiNCuR3bF
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/9SC4I69oi7
  • The European Central Bank will consider it a job well done if there is no movement in EUR/USD or the Euro crosses before, during or after Thursday’s policy announcements by its Governing Council. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/TCTonpE9Ik https://t.co/qq6TTaPtLE
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts @ddubrovskyFX and @FxWestwater on JPY with our free Q4 market analysis guide, available for free today.https://t.co/mzeJ5x73N3 https://t.co/zll2sxL4ja
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/Js6SNdNj9y
Gold Prices Surge to 6-Year High But Gains May Be Fleeting

Gold Prices Surge to 6-Year High But Gains May Be Fleeting

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices surge to 6-year high as Fed rate cut bets continue to swell
  • Follow-through may be fleeting as haven demand buoys the US Dollar
  • Crude oil prices may turn lower on downbeat Eurozone, US PMI data

Gold prices have surged to a six-year high, building on a move started in late 2018 against the backdrop of deteriorating Fed rate hike bets. It is hardly surprising then that the latest leg of the rally came in the wake of an FOMC monetary policy announcement that the markets took to mean that easing is imminent.

The move higher has picked up impressive momentum. Indeed, yesterday’s rise marked the largest one-day advance since mid-October 2018. Yet, the metal might find itself on the defensive before long if everything the markets now seem to believe about the macro landscape proves to be broadly correct.

Swelling rate cut expectations understandably follow from a slowdown in global growth since the beginning of last year. This might explain why evaporating Fed rate hike prospects have not brought down the US Dollar. It has tellingly gained alongside other anti-risk assets, like the Yen and Treasury bonds.

This seems to suggest the markets are positioning for systemic stress ahead. In fact, the degree of stimulus now priced into Fed Funds futures implies dire times indeed: in addition to ending its QT balance sheet reduction effort, the US central bank is now seen delivering a hefty 75bps in cuts by year-end.

If markets are right, on-coming liquidation is likely to put a greater premium on the Greenback’s unrivaled liquidity, replaying the rapid rise in the second half of 2008. If they are wrong, a hawkish revision to the prevailing monetary policy outlook might drive USD higher. Anti-fiat gold is at risk either way.

EUROZONE, US PMI DATA MAY REVIVE GLOBAL SLOWDOWN WORRIES

Traders may not have to wait long for these dynamics to begin emerging. Incoming Eurozone and US PMI data will offer a timely look at economic activity trends for two of the world’s top growth engines (the third being China). A string of recent disappointments warns of further deterioration.

Soft outcomes might remind the markets why global central banks have scrambled unison to the dovish side of the spectrum. If haven flows boost USD in this scenario, gold gains might hit a wall. Meanwhile, cycle-sensitive crude oil prices may fall with stocks, although building US-Iran friction could cap losses.

Did we get it right with our crude oil and gold forecasts? Get them here to find out!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are menacing the underside of a support-turned-resistance at an upward-sloping barrier set from December 2016, now at 1413.76. The August 2013 high at 1433.85 follows thereafter. The March 2014 swing high at 1392.08 marks immediate support, with a move below that eyeing the July 2016 top at 1375.15.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices rose to test resistance in the 57.24-88 area. A daily close above that targets the 60.39-95 zone next. The lower layer of immediate support is at 54.55, with a reversal back below that opening the door to challenge the 50.31-51.33 region once again.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES