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Gold Prices Miss Out as Shaky Markets Find Haven in the US Dollar

Gold Prices Miss Out as Shaky Markets Find Haven in the US Dollar

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices unable to capitalize on risk aversion as US Dollar gains
  • Crude oil prices drop most in two weeks as EIA reveals inventory rise
  • Eurozone finance ministers’ meeting, OPEC monthly report on tap

Gold prices idled as risk appetite softened across global financial markets. Would-be support from a drop in Treasury bond yields against this backdrop was neutralized as the US Dollar reclaimed support from haven-seeking capital flows, trading broadly higher and undermining the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives.

Sentiment-geared crude oil prices tracked lower alongside stocks. The move lower appeared to be amplified by EIA inventory flow data showing stockpiles added 2.21 million barrels last week, whereas analysts expected a 713.4k-barrel drawdown. WTI posted the largest daily decline in two weeks.

GOLD MAY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE, CRUDE OIL EYES OPEC REPORT

More of the same may be in the cards ahead as bellwether S&P 500 futures point conspicuously lower ahead in late APAC trade. The dour mood may be amplified as traders weigh comments from a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers, who will consider penalties for Italy after Rome breached statutory budget limits.

Any risk-derived crude oil weakness against this backdrop may be compounded by the release of a monthly report from OPEC. It might echo similar publications, pointing to swelling inventories despite slowing US production and a cartel-led effort to cap output as slowing global growth undermines demand.

Did we get it right with our crude oil and gold forecasts? Get them here to find out!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The appearance of a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern hints that gold prices may be forming a double top at resistance marked by February’s swing high(1346.75). A daily close below initial support in the 1323.40-26.30 area exposes the 1303.70-09.12 zone next.Alternatively, a push above 1346.75 eyes trend-defining resistance in the 1357.50-66.06 region next.

Gold Prices Miss Out as Shaky Markets Find Haven in the US Dollar

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices slumped back to support in the 50.31-51.33 area as a tepid attempt at a bounce ran out of steam. A break downward confirmed on a daily closing basis exposes resistance in play from September 2016 in the 42.05-43.00 zone. Alternatively, a push above the upper bound of immediate resistance at 55.75 paves the way to challenge the 57.24-88 region.

Gold Prices Miss Out as Shaky Markets Find Haven in the US Dollar

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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