We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.37%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 73.40%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/104D8ytLwb
  • BNP Paribas sees Brent crude oil averaging $44/bbl in 2020 and $59/bbl in 2021
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/OjTZOQEytM https://t.co/1TOiApxfjp
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.44% Oil - US Crude: -1.23% Silver: -1.39% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/mBBDXIGnyn
  • US is considering curbing special exemptions for Chinese firms, according to Politico
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.22% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.23% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.29% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.39% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.58% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/rst0kqdDrJ
  • Coming up at half past the hour. Please join me if you can... https://t.co/R2GcBc8KXS
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: -0.79% Wall Street: -1.00% France 40: -1.13% FTSE 100: -1.35% Germany 30: -1.52% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/u3dcuMGQBh
  • Since mid-June USD/CAD has consolidated in a well-defined zone. Will today’s Fed members speeches (14:00- 18:00 and 19:00 UK) push the pair in a clear direction? #USDCAD, #USD, #Fed https://t.co/SxjnwNupP2
  • Join @MartinSEssex 's #webinar at 6:30 AM ET/10:30 AM GMT to learn more about trading #sentiment Register here: https://t.co/XUUPRdY06p https://t.co/KsjQit31hK
Gold Price Gains May Be Fleeting as US Dollar Reclaims Haven Bid

Gold Price Gains May Be Fleeting as US Dollar Reclaims Haven Bid

2019-06-05 05:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices unable to sustain advance despite lower US Dollar
  • Crude oil prices anchored by Rosneft CEO comments, API data
  • Commodities at risk as markets finish digesting dovish Fed turn

Gold prices marked time as would-be support from another down day for the US Dollar was offset as bond yields edged narrowly higher in risk-on trade. Stocks surged as traders latched on to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell believed to be setting the stage for a near-term rate cut.

Usually sentiment-linked crude oil prices idled however. Gains may have been offset as Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said Russia would lose market share if OPEC+ output cuts were extended. Separately, API said US stockpiles added 3.55 million barrels last week, stoking supply glut worries.

GOLD, CRUDE OIL PRICES AT RISK AS MARKETS DIGEST DOVISH FED OUTLOOK

May’s US service-sector ISM and PMI reports as well as the Fed’s Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions are now in focus. They may reinforce the sense that the world’s largest economy is belatedly showing signs of a now 15-month long slowdown in global growth.

That might bolster the case for monetary easing, although there seems relatively little room to price in much more of it than is already implied in telltale Fed Funds futures. They now put the probability of two 25bps cuts before year-end at a commanding 87.8 percent.

As such, there might be diminishing scope for USD weakness based on a dovish adjustment in Fed policy bets even as risk aversion puts a premium on the benchmark currency’s unrivaled liquidity. Indeed, without the silver lining of a boost to stimulus hopes, soft data may simply be taken at face value.

Gold and crude oil prices look similarly vulnerable in this scenario. The former may turn lower if the Greenback’s rebound cools demand for anti-fiat alternatives as oil slips alongside shares. EIA inventory data projected to show a small draw may be another headwind if it registers closer to API’s estimate instead.

Did we get it right with our crude oil and gold forecasts? Get them here to find out!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices have stalled at resistance in the 1323.40-26.30 area. A daily close above it would expose the late-February swing top at 1346.75 next. Initial support is in the 1303.70-09.12 region, with a turn back below that setting the stage to challenge rising trend line support at 1275.98.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are idling above support in the 50.31-51.33 area. A break below it confirmed on a daily closing basis opens the door for a challenge of support set from September 2016 in the 42.05-43.00 zone. Alternatively, a rebound back above 55.75 targets the 57.24-88 region next.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.