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Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Fed's Powell Cools Rate Cut Bets

Crude Oil Prices May Fall as Fed's Powell Cools Rate Cut Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices idle as risk trends digest Friday’s bloodletting
  • Gold prices roar higher amid building US rate cut speculation
  • Commodities may fall as Fed Chair Powell strikes neutral tone

Crude oil prices drifted sideways alongside the bellwether S&P 500 stock index Monday, speaking to consolidation after Friday’s brutal bloodletting. Gold prices continued to soar on the back of building Fed rate cut speculation, spurred on after manufacturing ISM data disappointed relative forecasts (as expected).

CRUDE OIL, GOLD MAY FALL AS FED CHAIR POWELL COOLS RATE CUT BETS

Looking ahead, another helping of US economic activity data may inform monetary policy bets. Factory and durable goods orders figures are on tap and may disappoint even relative to already downbeat expectations if the trend in recent news-flow holds up.

While such outcomes might have prolonged the dovish shift in Fed policy bets, they might be overshadowed by a speech form central bank Chair Jerome Powell. He has forcefully argued in favor of a wait-and-see approach in recent weeks, meaning his remarks may clash with investors’ more downbeat projections.

Such rhetoric might spook investors pining for a looser monetary backdrop amid slowing global growth, escalating trade wars, and ample political uncertainty. This bodes ill for sentiment-linked crude oil prices. Gold may retreat as well as the US Dollar perks up, cooling anti-fiat demand.

Did we get it right with our crude oil and gold forecasts? Get them here to find out!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices continue to surge, with buyers now testing resistance in the 1323.40-26.30 area. A daily close above that exposes the late-February swing top at 1346.75. Alternatively, a move back below the 1303.70-09.12 inflection region targets rising trend line support at 1275.63.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are edging toward support in the 50.31-51.33 area. Breaking below that on a daily closing basis sets the stage for a decline toward support dating back to September 2016 in the 42.05-43.00 zone. Immediate resistance is at 55.75, with a turn above that eyeing the 57.24-88 region next.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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