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Crude Oil Prices at Risk as EU Mulls New Leadership, Italy Budget

Crude Oil Prices at Risk as EU Mulls New Leadership, Italy Budget

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices steady at chart support after last week’s selloff
  • EU leaders’ summit might trigger renewed risk-off liquidation
  • Gold prices weighing net influence of US Dollar, bond yields

Crude oil prices are hovering near the top of their near-term congestion range as traders brace for the return of full participation after holidays kept key US and UK markets offline Monday. Bellwether S&P 500 futures are pointing higher, hinting at a risk-on tilt that may be cautiously supportive.

This may not be lasting. An EU leaders’ summit gathering in Brussels will discuss new leadership for the European Commission, the European Council and the ECB. They may likewise address rumored plans to trigger a disciplinary penalty of €3.5 billion against Italy for failing to meet its budget obligations.

Traders will assess commentary emerging from the sit-down to see if front-runners for regional leadership appear more or less inclined in favor expansionary policy. Candidates coming from Southern Europe are likely to be seen as relatively more dovish vs Northern European alternatives.

The threat of another destabilizing spat between Rome and Brussels is also worth considering. It might amplify already widening fissures within the regional bloc and portend political instability that spills out as broader risk aversion. News-flow warning as much may weigh on cycle-sensitive energy prices.

How gold prices respond against a risk-off backdrop is a bit clouded. Lower bond yields might be supportive in this scenario, but gains could be checked if the US Dollar reclaims support from haven demand. That seems to hinge on the degree of anti-risk liquidation.

Did we get it right with our crude oil and gold forecasts? Get them here to find out!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices continue to probe falling trend line resistance set from late February. Breaking its upper layer – now at 1296.47 – on a daily closing basis targets the 1303.70-09.12 price band next. Alternatively, move below the 1260.80-63.76 zone would hint at bearish trend change and expose the 1235.11-38.00 region.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are digesting last week’s aggressive downswing above support in the 57.24-88 area. Breaking below it on a daily closing basis exposes the 55.37-75 zone. Alternatively, a push above resistance in the 60.39-95 region targets the 63.59-64.43 price band next.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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