Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices stall at three-month resistance despite US Dollar weakness
  • Crude oil prices stalling at chart support below $58/bbl figure on WTI
  • Trade war escalation risk eyed on Trump/Abe, EU ministers’ meetings

Gold prices mostly idled Friday despite a weaker US Dollar, consolidating the highs of the prior day’s spirited advance unable to muster substantive follow-through. Crude oil prices edged up a bit in what looked to reflect a broader retracement across sentiment-geared assets following Thursday’s dramatic selloff.

GLOBAL TRADE WAR ESCALATION RISK IN FOCUS

Looking ahead, holiday trading closures in the UK and the US might make for a quiet start to the trading week. The much-anticipated European Parliament elections seem to have passed without incident, at least for now. News-flow informing global trade war escalation fears may yet trigger knee-jerk volatility however.

US President Trump is visiting Japan to discuss a range of issues including bilateral trade relations with Prime Minister Abe. Meanwhile, a meeting of EU trade ministers will address upcoming negotiations with the US on industrial tariffs and a still-possible levy on auto imports.

While no major policy announcements are expected from either meeting, the tone of outgoing commentary might inspire a response. If they portend greater scope for cross-border tensions, gold may edge higher as crude oil weakens in risk-off trade.

Did we get it right with our crude oil and gold forecasts? Get them here to find out!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are probing resistance guiding them lower since late February. A daily close above its outer layer – now at 1297.13 – likely neutralizes near-term selling pressure and exposes the 1303.70-09.12 congestion region. Alternatively, a daily close below the 1260.80-63.76 zone may signal a bearish trend change, opening the door for a test of 1235.11-38.00 next.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices paused to digest losses at support in the 57.24-88 area. A further push lower from here sees the next downside hurdle in the 55.37-75 zone. Alternatively, a daily close back above the 60.39-95 region brings the dense 63.59-67.03 resistance block back into focus.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter