Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.


  • Crude oil prices decline most in three weeks on dismal inventory data
  • Gold prices idle as bond yields and US Dollar diverge in risk-off trade
  • European politics, US-China trade war to put traders on the defensive

Crude oil prices plunged, recording the largest daily drop in three weeks, as EIA inventory flow data reveled a much larger-than-expected build of 4.74 million barrels last week. Investors were expecting to see a 1.28-million-barrel drawdown, although leading API statistics hinted at an increase yesterday.

Meanwhile, gold prices marked time as market sentiment soured. Bond yields tracked stocks lower – complementing the metal’s appeal as a non-interest-bearing alternative – but any support from this appeared to be offset as haven-seeking flows buoyed the US Dollar. That undercut anti-fiat demand.


Asia Pacific markets followed Wall Street lower, and more of the same is hinted ahead. Indeed, bellwether S&P 500 futures are trading convincingly in the red. That bodes ill for cycle-sensitive oil prices, while gold may continue to struggle as baseline lending rates and the Greenback diverge.

Investors face a variety of headwinds. Eurozone PMI and German IFO data may point to sluggish regional growth and shaky business confidence as Brexit uncertainty deepens all the while EU Parliament elections threaten to usher in a wave of eurosceptics hoping to constrain and perhaps even dismantle the bloc.

This is on top of US-China trade war escalation. The US is now considering blacklisting five Chinese surveillance companies including Megvii, cutting them off access to US components and software. That marks a broadening of last week’s analogous action against technology giant Huawei.

Did we get it right with our crude oil and gold forecasts? Get them here to find out!


Gold prices are idling at rising trend line support set from August 2018. A daily close below this and the 1260.80-63.76 inflection area targets the 1235.11-38.00 zone next. Resistance is in the 1303.70-09.12 region, with a push above that eyeing the 1323.40-26.30 price band. February’s high at 1346.75 follows.

Gold price chart - daily


Crude oil prices recoiled from resistance, sinking toward range support at 60.39. A daily close below that opens the door for a test of the 57.24-88 area. On the topside, a dense layer of overlapping resistance levels runs from 63.59 to 67.03. A daily close above the upper boundary targets the $70/bbl figure next.

Crude oil price chart - daily


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter