Gold Prices May Drop as FOMC Minutes Cool Rate Cut Speculation
What's on this page
GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
- Gold prices rudderless as Brexit news-flow offers conflicting influences
- Crude oil prices remain range-bound, eyeing EIA inventory flow report
- FOMC meeting minutes may cool rate cut bets, hurt commodity prices
Gold prices struggled to for direction, trading inversely of seesaw swings in the US Dollar. It succumbed to cross-currents from a jump in the GBP/USD exchange rate after UK Prime Minister Theresa May floated the possibility of a second Brexit referendum. The move promptly fizzled however, with a rebound in the benchmark currency cooling anti-fiat demand and forcing the yellow metal to retreat.
All eyes now turn to minutes from May’s FOMC meeting. Commentary reiterating officials’ wait-and-see approach amid a raft of global uncertainties may cool rate cut hopes. That seems inherently USD-supportive, with haven demand acting as a further accelerant as markets pining for policy support tilt into risk-off territory. Gold is vulnerable in this scenario.
Crude oil prices swung modestly lower but remained well within the narrow congestion range prevailing since late last week. Fed-inspired risk aversion might make for a more committed selloff. Pressure may be compounded if EIA inventory data echoes an API projection showing US stocks added 2.4 million barrels last week. Analysts are betting on a 1.28-million-barrel increase.
Did we get it right with our crude oil and gold forecasts? Get them here to find out!
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices are still probing support at a rising trend line guiding them higher since mid-August 2018. This is bolstered by the 1260.80-63.76 inflection area. A daily close below that targets the 1235.11-38.00 zone thereafter. Alternatively, a rebound above resistance in the 1303.70-09.12 region broadly aims for February’s high at 1346.75, with a minor hurdle in the 1323.40-26.30 price band along the way.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices continue to mark time at the lower bound of a dense block of overlapping resistance levels in the 63.59-67.03 area. If buyers manage the wherewithal to breach it, an opening to retest the $70/bbl figure may present itself. Alternatively, a drop through near-term support at 60.39 sees the next downside barrier in the 57.24-88 zone.
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES
- See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices
- Having trouble with your strategy? Here’s the #1 mistake that traders make
- Join a free webinar to answer your commodity market questions
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.