Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.


  • Gold prices rudderless as Brexit news-flow offers conflicting influences
  • Crude oil prices remain range-bound, eyeing EIA inventory flow report
  • FOMC meeting minutes may cool rate cut bets, hurt commodity prices

Gold prices struggled to for direction, trading inversely of seesaw swings in the US Dollar. It succumbed to cross-currents from a jump in the GBP/USD exchange rate after UK Prime Minister Theresa May floated the possibility of a second Brexit referendum. The move promptly fizzled however, with a rebound in the benchmark currency cooling anti-fiat demand and forcing the yellow metal to retreat.

All eyes now turn to minutes from May’s FOMC meeting. Commentary reiterating officials’ wait-and-see approach amid a raft of global uncertainties may cool rate cut hopes. That seems inherently USD-supportive, with haven demand acting as a further accelerant as markets pining for policy support tilt into risk-off territory. Gold is vulnerable in this scenario.

Crude oil prices swung modestly lower but remained well within the narrow congestion range prevailing since late last week. Fed-inspired risk aversion might make for a more committed selloff. Pressure may be compounded if EIA inventory data echoes an API projection showing US stocks added 2.4 million barrels last week. Analysts are betting on a 1.28-million-barrel increase.

Did we get it right with our crude oil and gold forecasts? Get them here to find out!


Gold prices are still probing support at a rising trend line guiding them higher since mid-August 2018. This is bolstered by the 1260.80-63.76 inflection area. A daily close below that targets the 1235.11-38.00 zone thereafter. Alternatively, a rebound above resistance in the 1303.70-09.12 region broadly aims for February’s high at 1346.75, with a minor hurdle in the 1323.40-26.30 price band along the way.

Gold price chart - daily


Crude oil prices continue to mark time at the lower bound of a dense block of overlapping resistance levels in the 63.59-67.03 area. If buyers manage the wherewithal to breach it, an opening to retest the $70/bbl figure may present itself. Alternatively, a drop through near-term support at 60.39 sees the next downside barrier in the 57.24-88 zone.

Crude oil price chart - daily


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter