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Crude Oil Prices at the Mercy of Erratic Market Mood Swings

Crude Oil Prices at the Mercy of Erratic Market Mood Swings

2019-05-16 03:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil price with stocks on a rare bit of upbeat US trade news
  • Gold prices struggle for direction US Dollar, bond yields diverge
  • Sensitivity to headline risk calling for cautious trading approach

Crude oil prices rose alongside stocks yesterday as an apparent delay in US auto tariffs and progress on implementing the USMCA trade agreement – the replacement for NAFTA – buoyed market-wide sentiment. Gold prices stalled as swings between risk-on and -off extremes fueled divergence in bond yields and US Dollar. That put the metal’s defining anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing attributes in conflict.

CRUDE OIL, GOLD PRICES AT THE MERCY OF HEADLINE RISK

Prevailing macro trends in market mood are likely to remain the driving catalyst from here. G10 FX markets are showing risk-off signs in Asia Pacific trade and the bellwether S&P 500 are trading lower, but this may be corrective after yesterday’s moves. The stock of scheduled event risk is relatively sparse, putting prices at the mercy of incoming headlines. That is a recipe for kneejerk volatility, so caution seems prudent.

Did we get it right with our crude oil and gold forecasts? Get them here to find out!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices remain pinned down below resistance in the 1303.70-09.12 area. Breaking above this barrier opens the door for a test of the 1323.40-26.30 zone. A region dense with overlapping support levels runs through 1260.80. A daily close below this threshold exposes the 1235.11-38.00 region.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices continue to oscillate above support at 60.39. A daily close below it initially targets the 57.24-88 area. A dense resistance bloc in the 63.59-67.03 zone caps the upside. If buyers manage to breach it, a path toward retesting the $70/bbl figure may be cleared.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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