We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.35% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.22% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/eSBVAvI7mB
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.31% US 500: -0.06% France 40: -0.10% Wall Street: -0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/YY36jf96CD
  • For #gold to make another attempt at $1,500/oz. and above, the spot price will need to take out two levels of resistance. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/o9TKzPUrwK $GLD https://t.co/myzVurNtBB
  • Fed's Williams: - Operating framework is currently very efficient and effective - No need for a reconsideration on operating framework for Ample-reserves $SPX $DXY
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model forecast for Q4 rises to 0.42%, previously at 0.31% $DXY $SPX
  • UK Election Poll (Kantar) - Conservatives 45% (+8) - Labour 27% (unch) - Lib Dems 16% (-1) - Brexit Party 2% (-7)
  • En español: La tendencia del oro carece de claridad por la falta de avances en la guerra arancelaria y las dudas sobre el posible desenlace del conflicto comercial entre Estados Unidos y China #trading #XAUUSD $XAUUSD $gold https://t.co/WuxBJAciue https://t.co/Qq8yyc8Nbh
  • Chair of House Committee on Ways and Means Neal: - USMCA could be completed by Christmas if backed by Trump $DXY $CAD $MXN
  • Chair of House Committee on Ways and Means Neal: - Differences on USMCA are pretty small - Democrats no worried about handing Trump a victory #trade $DXY $MXN $CAD
  • RT @JohnRentoul: New Kantar poll, 14-18 Nov: 18-pt Tory lead Con 45% +8 Labour 27% ±0 Lib Dem 16% -1 Green 3% ±0 Brexit Party 2% -7 (Chan…
Gold Prices May Break 9-Month Uptrend on US Jobs Report

Gold Prices May Break 9-Month Uptrend on US Jobs Report

2019-05-03 00:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices perched atop 9-month trend support as US jobs data looms
  • US Dollar may rise on haven flows if labor market measures disappoint
  • Crude oil prices break 4-month uptrend as undersupply worries recede

Gold prices continued to drift lower Thursday as US Dollar extended gains alongside Treasury bond yields, building on moves triggered by the prior day’s FOMC policy announcement. From here, all eyes turn to April’s US jobs report. A rise of 190k in nonfarm payrolls and a steady unemployment rate at 3.8 percent are expected. Wage inflation is seen firming to 3.3 percent on-year.

While such outcomes would be broadly in line with near-term trends, the recent trend toward disappointment relative to forecasts on US macro news-flow relative warns that a downside surprise may be in the cards. Leading activity survey data warns of the same. Soft results coupled with a Fed that is unconvinced of the need for stimulus may be inspire a risk-off response from financial markets.

The US central bank’s wait-and-see approach seems allow the US Dollar greater scope to capitalize on haven demand during periods of de-risking even as it limits scope for lower lending rates. That may set the stage for gold to weaken if investors turn defensive. Cycle-linked crude oil prices be likewise pressured as ebbing supply concerns remove a source of recent support.

The benchmark WTI contract plunged to a one-month low after EIA data showed that US inventories jumped by a whopping 9.93 million barrels last week, the most in almost six months. That put total stockpiles at the largest since September 2017. News that Russia exceeded its OPEC+ quota last month and comments from Iran warning of the cartel’s collapse if members cooperate with new US sanctions probably helped.

See the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to learn what will drive prices in the second quarter!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices remain perched atop support in the 1260.80-63.76 area. Breaking below that on a daily closing basis overturns the uptrend from mid-August, initially exposing the 1235.11-38.00 zone next. Immediate resistance is marked by the recently broken neckline of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) topping pattern, now at 1290.40. A move above that puts the $1300/oz figure in the crosshairs. The H&S setup implies a measured downside objective at 1215.00.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices broke trend line support defining the rally from late-December lows. Sellers now aim to challenge a minor downside barrier at 60.39, with a close below that exposing the 57.24-88 area. A dense layer of resistance runs all the way through 67.03. A recovery back above that sets the stage for a retest of the $70/bbl figure.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.