We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The #Euro may bounce after hitting the lowest level in close to three years against the US Dollar. While the broader trend points firmly lower, selling pressure may be ebbing. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/697SQ9j5FY https://t.co/6SEvwQyod8
  • GBP/CAD has broken below the September uptrend while EUR/CAD may be ending its consecutive 12 day decline with EUR/CHF approaching key resistance as NZD/CAD aims at November lows. Get your currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/GpRB7IKhTA https://t.co/hlHlGdhkHc
  • The $GBP recoiled from chart resistance against the US Dollar, setting the stage for prices to resume a bearish trend reversal triggered mid-January. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/lVpyZkIfJt https://t.co/9oXusxs0Kg
  • The #Euro may have more room to fall versus its major peers such as the US Dollar, Japanese Yen and British Pound. What is the technical picture of EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/M6fLA9g3BK https://t.co/HMwQgr1WP5
  • The $USD’s aggressive rise versus ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso prolonged. What is the technical road ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/RsFptNzODf https://t.co/u8meQUSsVG
  • $AUD broke critical range support against its US counterpart, suggesting deeper losses are ahead even after prices hit an 11-year low. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/45YpJRjDYj https://t.co/zWAzaL78Sc
  • After negotiating a series of economic and geopolitical risks in 2019, the S&P 500 rounded out the year more than 30% higher. Will the stock market crash in 2020? Find out from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/8KsjB9YkBB https://t.co/4ph9bdMxz9
  • Italy reports first death from coronavirus - BBG
  • Bullish signals from IG Client Sentiment earlier this week correctly forecasted that $EURUSD could rise in the near-term. A close above 1.0852 opens the door to near-term strength while downside resumption entails taking out 1.0778 - https://t.co/YySE3VulgC https://t.co/mr7jIWtoVW
  • #Gold prices soared towards the 2013 high in the best week since June 2019. The medium-term $XAUUSD technical outlook is bullish. The week ahead will be scrutinized for signs of a top #technicalanalysis - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2020/02/21/Gold-Price-Technical-Forecast-Bullish-as-XAUUSD-Targets-2013-High.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/KwGYG9n7hM
Gold Prices May Break 9-Month Uptrend on US Jobs Report

Gold Prices May Break 9-Month Uptrend on US Jobs Report

2019-05-03 00:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices perched atop 9-month trend support as US jobs data looms
  • US Dollar may rise on haven flows if labor market measures disappoint
  • Crude oil prices break 4-month uptrend as undersupply worries recede

Gold prices continued to drift lower Thursday as US Dollar extended gains alongside Treasury bond yields, building on moves triggered by the prior day’s FOMC policy announcement. From here, all eyes turn to April’s US jobs report. A rise of 190k in nonfarm payrolls and a steady unemployment rate at 3.8 percent are expected. Wage inflation is seen firming to 3.3 percent on-year.

While such outcomes would be broadly in line with near-term trends, the recent trend toward disappointment relative to forecasts on US macro news-flow relative warns that a downside surprise may be in the cards. Leading activity survey data warns of the same. Soft results coupled with a Fed that is unconvinced of the need for stimulus may be inspire a risk-off response from financial markets.

The US central bank’s wait-and-see approach seems allow the US Dollar greater scope to capitalize on haven demand during periods of de-risking even as it limits scope for lower lending rates. That may set the stage for gold to weaken if investors turn defensive. Cycle-linked crude oil prices be likewise pressured as ebbing supply concerns remove a source of recent support.

The benchmark WTI contract plunged to a one-month low after EIA data showed that US inventories jumped by a whopping 9.93 million barrels last week, the most in almost six months. That put total stockpiles at the largest since September 2017. News that Russia exceeded its OPEC+ quota last month and comments from Iran warning of the cartel’s collapse if members cooperate with new US sanctions probably helped.

See the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to learn what will drive prices in the second quarter!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices remain perched atop support in the 1260.80-63.76 area. Breaking below that on a daily closing basis overturns the uptrend from mid-August, initially exposing the 1235.11-38.00 zone next. Immediate resistance is marked by the recently broken neckline of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) topping pattern, now at 1290.40. A move above that puts the $1300/oz figure in the crosshairs. The H&S setup implies a measured downside objective at 1215.00.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices broke trend line support defining the rally from late-December lows. Sellers now aim to challenge a minor downside barrier at 60.39, with a close below that exposing the 57.24-88 area. A dense layer of resistance runs all the way through 67.03. A recovery back above that sets the stage for a retest of the $70/bbl figure.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.