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Gold Prices Inch Closer to Confirming Top, US Bank Earnings Eyed

Gold Prices Inch Closer to Confirming Top, US Bank Earnings Eyed

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices inch closer to confirming Head and Shoulders topping pattern
  • Crude oil prices break with risk trends, decline as Chevron buys Anadarko
  • Goldman Sachs and Citigroup earnings, EIA drilling data in focus ahead

Gold prices marked time Friday, tied down as Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar diverged again. Rates rose while the Greenback fell as JPMorgan reported first-quarter results that topped analysts’ forecasts, boosting risk appetite.

That sent yields higher, sapping the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like the yellow metal. The risk-on mood translated into diminished haven demand for the global reserve currency however, making anti-fiat alternatives appear attractive by comparison.

Crude oil prices initially rallied alongside stocks after JPMorgan earnings data crossed the wires but soon changed course, retreating as markets reacted to news that Chevron Corp. has agreed to buy Anadarko Petroleum Corp. Markets seemed to see the move as likely to boost global supply.

US BANK EARNINGS IN FOCUS FOR COMMODITY MARKETS

Another round of first-quarter earnings reports from top US banks including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup is in now focus. Markets are likely to see the outcomes as global growth barometers. Upbeat results may ease slowdown fears, echoing Friday’s price action, whereas disappointments may stoke risk aversion.

The EIA Drilling Productivity report is also due to cross the wires. It seems likely to show that US output continues to swell, suggesting that on-coming capacity might overwhelm OPEC-led efforts to drain global inventories. That might weigh on oil prices.

See the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to learn what will drive prices in the second quarter!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are edging toward neckline support at 1281.36. A daily close below this would confirm the formation of a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, hinting that major top is in place. The first layer of subsequent support is in the 1260.80-63.76 zone, but the H&S setup implies a larger decline toward the $1200/oz figure. Alternatively, break above resistance in the 1303.70-09.12 area would neutralize near-term downward pressure and put the 1323.40-26.30 region into focus.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices continue to hover below support-turned-resistance in the 63.59-64.88 area. A break higher brings prices directly into the 66.09-67.03infection zone. Beyond that, the next upside barrier is at the $70/bbl figure. Alternatively, a turn lower that results in a close below 60.39 would break the uptrend from late December and set the stage to challenge the 57.24-88 region.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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