News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Build you crude oil strategy with some basic key insights. Hone your trading skills here: https://t.co/ekflhEeXRX https://t.co/ASQshPqL0M
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.08% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.15% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.19% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ONjmG96bBI
  • Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD at Risk as US Treasury Yields Aim Higher - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2021/04/12/Euro-Price-Outlook-EURUSD-at-Risk-as-US-Treasury-Yields-Aim-Higher.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $EUR $EURUSD https://t.co/F5xV0LfjbZ
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.11% France 40: 0.07% US 500: -0.18% Wall Street: -0.21% FTSE 100: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/BYsOrQ3vtn
  • Crude Oil Prices Struggle Even as Powell Highlights Strong Recovery https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/12/Crude-Oil-Prices-Steady-as-Powell-Highlights-a-Strong-Recovery.html https://t.co/r8i6QncAeH
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/M5ByVTQRO5
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/pOqRcsvRuG
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.97%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 81.69%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/0sDY8wMAgW
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.11% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.02% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.08% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.15% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.16% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/7VqFugM1Ph
  • Gold Prices Fall as Strong PPI Readings Boost Yields, USD Rises https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/12/Gold-Prices-Fall-as-Strong-PPI-Readings-Boost-Yields-USD-Rises-.html https://t.co/mSIBb6aELR
Gold Prices at Key Technical Barrier, Crude Oil Prices Vulnerable

Gold Prices at Key Technical Barrier, Crude Oil Prices Vulnerable

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices testing potentially trend-defining chart resistance
  • Crude oil prices continue to stall below the $65/barrel figure
  • Event risk lull may bring risk-off dynamics, IEA report on tap

Gold prices rose after a grim ECB monetary policy announcement spooked markets and drove yields downward, boosting the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets. The US Dollar initially popped higher as downbeat comments from President Mario Draghi crossed the wires – anchoring the yellow metal – but a swift subsequent reversal removed this hurdle.

US CPI data showing core inflation unexpectedly fell in March coupled with early reports of a draft deal to delay Brexit at an emergency EU leaders’ summit may have set the stage for the Greenback’s reversal. Data reinforcing a dovish stance from the US central bank coupled with avoiding a disorderly EU/UK divorce – at least for now – sent the bellwether S&P 500 upward, punishing the anti-risk currency.

Crude oil prices mostly reflected sentiment trends, rising alongside shares in the latter half of the day. EIA inventory flow data revealing a larger-than-expected 7.03-million-barrel rise in crude stockpiles last week was mostly overlooked. Later in the day, minutes from the March FOMC meeting seemingly registered less dovish than markets accounted for, setting a session low for USD and high for commodities.

CRUDE OIL MAY FALL ON RISK TRENDS, IEA REPORT

From here, a lull in top-tier event risk might make for a period of consolidation. Alternatively, the absence of immediate distractions – at least of the scheduled variety – may allow investors to refocus on the increasingly worrying macro backdrop. Crude oil prices may fall if this pushes sentiment into risk-off territory. A monthly IEA oil market report may flag ebbing demand and swelling supply, compounding pressure.

See the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to learn what will drive prices in the second quarter!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are testing resistance in the 1303.70-09.12 area, a barrier marked by a chart inflection area and a falling trend line capping gains since late February. A daily close above sees the next upside barrier at 1326.30. More broadly, such move would hint at the completion of a bullish Triangle continuation pattern, setting the stage for longer-term recovery.

Alternatively, a turn lower from here that leads to a break of neckline support at 1283.53 would point to the completion of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) top. That would set the stage for a test of rising trend support established from August 2018 lows, now 1258.34. The H&S formation would imply a larger selloff to probe near the $1200/oz figure.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices continue to test support-turned-resistance in the 63.59-64.88 area. A daily close above it would bring the 66.09-67.03infection zone immediately into focus, with a subsequent breach of that opening the door for a move to challenge the $70/bbl figure. A break below rising trend support set from late December – now at 60.39 – is needed to neutralize immediate upward pressure, exposing the 57.24-88 region next.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES