News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/S9CEcBm5Qe https://t.co/VNQpG1CUVM
  • $AUDUSD price action strikingly similar to that seen in 2002 - Break above the 1997 downtrend ignited a 106% surge, eventually peaking in July 2008 (0.9850) - Consolidation above downtrend preceded upside push - Bullish RSI divergence appears to signal cyclical upturn https://t.co/j3IumVbAlB
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Leading Economic Index Final (JUL) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 86.9 Previous: 83.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-28
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Coincident Index Final (JUL) due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 76.2 Previous: 74.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-09-28
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.83%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 64.39%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/MQNUIOEuMx
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.42% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.21% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.21% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.06% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ta4Cy97vbC
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 1.56% France 40: 1.56% FTSE 100: 1.23% Wall Street: 0.47% US 500: 0.39% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/lA0TK0OTZQ
  • #ASX200 struggling to break above key resistance at 6000 after Westpac retracted its calls for an #RBA rate cut in October RSI hints at fading bullish momentum which suggests that a push towards the monthly low is on the cards, if 200-MA resistance (6020) remains intact. $XJO https://t.co/iXrCqbayfc
  • $AUDJPY poised to move higher after finding support at the 200-day moving average. $CADJPY eyeing a push back towards the yearly high $EURJPY perched atop key support after breaking below Rising Wedge support. Are further losses in the offing? $JPY https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/09/28/Japanese-Yen-Outlook-AUDJPY-CADJPY-EURJPY-Levels-To-Watch-.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/v03Ge14yvW
  • Gold price vs. US Dollar Index (DXY) -52 weeks https://t.co/VuZTTnNxmm
Gold Prices Eye Yields, US Dollar Response to IMF Outlook Update

Gold Prices Eye Yields, US Dollar Response to IMF Outlook Update

2019-04-09 06:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices rise but technical topping signs remain intact
  • Crude oil prices rise to five-month high on Libya tensions
  • Grim IMF economic outlook update might spook markets

Gold prices rose as the US Dollar weakened yesterday, in a move that seemed to reflect the dovish implications of a surprise drop in wage inflation reported Friday on Fed policy bets. Crude oil prices rose as on-going tensions in Libya drove supply disruption fears.

GRIM IMF OUTLOOK UPDATE MAY SPOOK FINANCIAL MARKETS

Looking ahead, the spotlight turns to an updated edition of the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO). The fund has launched its annual spring meeting alongside the World Bank and this release will set the stage. A downbeat tone echoing recent deterioration in global growth may sour risk appetite.

This might weigh on bond yields and stoke haven demand for the US Dollar, offering conflicting cues to gold prices. The relative potency of these forces relative to each other is likely to shape price action. Traders may withhold conviction altogether as minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting loom ahead.

The response from pro-cyclical oil prices may be more straight-forwardly negative. Separately, the EIA short-term energy outlook and API inventory flow data will hit the wires. The latter will be judged against bets on a 2.48-million-barrel inflow. The former put output at a record 12.3mb/d in 2019 last month.

See the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to learn what will drive prices in the second quarter!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices bounced to retest resistance in the 1303.70-09.12 but the outlines of a choppy Head and Shoulders (H&S) top remain intact. The outer bound of the latest series of lower highs is now at 1313.45, with a daily close above that likely needed to neutralize near-term bearish cues. The next upside threshold is at 1326.30. Alternatively, confirmation of the H&S setup on break below its neckline – now at 1283.41 – sets the stage for a test of trend line support set from August 2018. This is currently at 1256.73.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices rose to a five-month high to challenge support-turned-resistance in the 63.59-64.88 zone. This is swiftly followed by the 66.09-67.03 inflection area. A turn lower from here eyes rising trend line support set from late December. The outer layer of that barrier is now at 59.79, with a daily close above below that initially targets the 57.24-88 region.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES