Gold, Crude Oil Prices May Weaken on Soft US Jobs Data
GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
- Gold prices touch one-month low, but breakdown proves elusive
- Crude oil price chart hints a downturn might be brewing ahead
- Soft US jobs report could be broadly negative for commodities
Gold prices briefly touched a one-month low as the US Dollar recovered yesterday, sapping the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. The move unwound intraday however, with traders apparently unwilling to commit to a directional bias. Crude oil prices pulled back a bit but held firmly within familiar trading ranges.
On balance, indecision probably reflects a slew of competing narratives pulling investors in opposite directions. On one hand, US-China trade talks seem to be moving along. On the other, evidence of global slowdown continues to pour in all the while Brexit remains a potent source of uncertainty.
US JOBS DATA MAY WEIGH ON GOLD, CRUDE OIL PRICES
Looking ahead, US jobs data is firmly in the spotlight. Payrolls growth is expected to pick in March while the jobless rate remains near a 50-year low while wage inflation matches the highest in a decade. A recent tendency for US news-flow to undershoot forecasts might make for disappointment however.
In this scenario, swelling concerns about a downshift in the global business cycle might cool risk appetite. The Greenback might attract haven demand in such a scenario, weighing on gold. Meanwhile, crude oil will probably track stocks and other sentiment-geared assets downward.
Positive soundbites emerging out of talks between US and Chinese officials still underway in Washington DC may countervail data-driven negativity somewhat. Recent signs of progress have conspicuously failed to boost sentiment in a lasting way however, and may likewise fizzle this time too.
See the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to learn what will drive prices in the second quarter!
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices are still trying to complete a bearish Head and Shoulders topping pattern. A daily close below neckline support at 1283.07 would act as confirmation, initially exposing the 1260.80-63.76 area next. Alternatively, a reversal back above support-turned-resistance in the 1303.70-09.12 zone sees the next upside barrier at 1326.30.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices stalled after producing a Harami candlestick pattern below support-turned-resistance in the 63.59-64.43 area. The formation hints at indecision and may precede a downturn. A daily close below trend line support at 59.31 exposes the 57.24-88 zone. Alternatively, a move above 64.43 targets the 66.09-67.03 inflection region next.
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES
- Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend
- Having trouble with your strategy? Here’s the #1 mistake that traders make
- Join a Trading Q&A webinar to answer your commodity market questions
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.