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Crude Oil Prices May Fall on Growth View, Confirming Chart Setup

Crude Oil Prices May Fall on Growth View, Confirming Chart Setup

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices may fall as global growth concerns re-emerge
  • Gold prices still struggling as US Dollar, bond yields diverge
  • Upcoming Brexit votes may be sapping investors’ conviction

Crude oil prices traded higher, pacing futures tracking the bellwether S&P 500 stock index as sentiment-linked assets corrected following recent losses. Gold prices edged down as the risk-on mood initially buoyed bond yields, but the move reversed course midday as soft US economic data rekindled global slowdown fears. That sent lending rates back lower but also inspired haven flows into the US Dollar, leaving the yellow metal rudderless through the end of the session yet again.

GLOBAL GROWTH FEARS MAY RETURN AFTER LATEST BREXIT VOTES

Looking ahead, crude oil prices may be pressured after the RBNZ became the latest central bank to warn about a slowdown in global growth. Official reports of a sharp drop in Chinese industrial profits passed seemingly unnoticed initially but may yet emerge as another worry. Investors may be opting not to commit ahead of a series of indicative votes on Brexit due today, but broader macro headwinds may re-assert their importance thereafter. The outlook for gold remains conflicted as yields and Greenback diverge.

Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices stalled below resistance at 1326.30. A reversal lower from here that takes out support in the 1303.70-09.12 area may set the stage for confirming a choppy Head and Shoulders top formation by exposing the pattern’s would-be neckline, now at 1282.16. Closing below the latter level would imply a significant bearish reversal to follow. Alternatively, a piercing of resistance targets the February top at 1346.75.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

A bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern continues to suggest that crude oil prices are carving out a top. Confirmation of reversal requires a daily close below support in the 57.24-88 area, a move that would set the stage to challenge the 55.37-75 zone. A push above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 60.45 would invalidate bearish cues and expose the 50% level at 62.28.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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