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Gold Prices May Struggle to Capitalize if PMI Data Sours Market Mood

Gold Prices May Struggle to Capitalize if PMI Data Sours Market Mood

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices struggling after Fed-linked rise, chart setup ominous
  • Crude oil prices pause to digest having touched a four-month high
  • March Eurozone, US PMI data may stoke global slowdown fears

Gold prices pulled back as the US Dollar corrected higher as the markets digested the prior day’s dramatic Fed-inspired selloff, undermining the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives epitomized by the yellow metal. Crude oil prices marked time, consolidating in a narrow range after touching a four-month high in the wake of supportive EIA inventories data.

EUROZONE, US PMI DATA MAY FUEL GLOBAL SLOWDOWN FEARS

From here, the preliminary set of March PMI surveys from the Eurozone and the US are in focus. These are closely watched as timely indicators of the global business cycle, making them particularly pertinent now as investors fret about a broad-based slowdown. Outcomes echoing the tendency toward disappointment in recent news-flow may weigh on investors’ mood, making for a broadly risk-off bias.

Bellwether European and US stock index futures are pointing conspicuously lower in late Asia Pacific trade, seemingly reinforcing the probability of such an outcome. If it materializes, gold may find a degree of support as bond yields drop. Gains may be capped if the Greenback manages to capitalize on haven-seeking capital flows. Cycle-sensitive oil prices may be in for a more straight-forward decline.

Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices stalled at resistance in the 1302.40-12.83 area, with overall positioning still hinting that a Head and Shoulders top might be in the works. A daily close below neckline support at 1282.11 confirms the setup and initially opens the door for a test of the 1260.80-63.76 zone. Alternatively, a breach of resistance exposes a minor barrier at 1326.30, followed by February’s swing high at 1346.75.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices stalled ahead of resistance marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 60.45. Breaking above this barrier initially exposes the 50% level at 62.28, though the more defining upside threshold is a bit further ahead in the 63.59-64.43 area. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 50% Fib retracement at 59.63 puts the 57.24-88 zone back into focus.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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