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  • Crude oil price chart still warning of ebbing upside momentum
  • EIA inventory flow data on tap, baseline envisions modest build
  • Gold prices may struggle for direction before FOMC rate call

Crude oil prices rose Monday, with the cycle-sensitive commodity tracking broadly in line with a pickup in risk appetite. The bellwether S&P 500 stock index rose for a second day, closing at a five-month high. It probably didn’t hurt that OPEC+ officials recommitted themselves to a coordinated output cut scheme, even though the decision to extend it past mid-year looks to have been delayed until June.

Gold prices were little-changed, edging narrowly higher but ultimately failing to make headway past familiar near-term ranges. The standstill probably echoes similar torpor in Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar as the markets wait for Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision before committing to a directional bias on assets driven by the outlook for monetary policy.


Looking ahead, oil is eyeing weekly API inventory flow data. It will be judged against bets on a modest 632k inflow expected to be reported in official EIA statistics later in the week. Gold might see a bit of near-term volatility as US durable goods and factory orders figures are released but lasting follow-through is probably unlikely until Fed Chair Powell and company have had their say.

See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices!


Gold prices might be carving out a choppy Head and Shoulders top below $1350/oz. A daily close below neckline support – now at 1282.11 – would act as confirmation, initially exposing the 1260.80-63.76 area but broadly implying a larger decline toward 1220. Alternatively, a daily close above resistance in the 1303.70-10.95 region opens the door for a move to revisit the February swing top at 1346.75.

Gold price chart - daily


Crude oil prices fell just shy of breaking resistance in the 57.96-59.05 area. Meanwhile, negative RSI divergence continues to warn of a bearish reversal in the works. A daily close below support in the 54.55-55.66 area sets the stage for a test of the 50.15-51.33 zone. Alternatively, a confirmed break higher paves the way for a retest of trend line support-turned-resistance a trend line set from February 2016, now at 62.63.

Crude oil price chart - daily


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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