We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • - #USDollar eyes #Powell second Congressional testimony - What were some of the key takeaways from his outlook? - Stock markets cautiously eye shaky US-China #trade talks https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/11/14/US-Dollar-Stocks-Eye-Powell-Testimony-as-Trade-Talks-Stumble.html https://t.co/gKJr3DpVOO
  • AUD/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/USD Price Trend Outlook in Positioning $AUDUSD $USDCAD $EURUSD - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/11/14/AUDUSD-USDCAD-EURUSD-Price-Trend-Outlook-in-Positioning.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/1i334MvltQ
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.56%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 85.94%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/cCz4harA5v
  • My trade video for today: ' Dow and Emerging Market Divergence a Warning, Trade Wars Outshine Powell Testimony' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/11/14/Dow-and-Emerging-Market-Divergence-a-Warning-Trade-Wars-Outshine-Powell-Testimony.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/ktgLIKeW5s
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.10% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.09% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.13% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.34% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.60% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/qc85e1c3xH
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.09% France 40: 0.03% Wall Street: 0.02% US 500: -0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/NUCz05xYNI
  • The $AUD appears to have resumed the dominant downtrend against its US counterpart after breaking support set from October lows. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/DW5oWIuMaX https://t.co/RYoyvGvkOd
  • Since late July, the economic news flow from Australia has been increasingly out-performing relative to economists’ expectations. -Citi #AUD
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (SEP), Actual: 1.8% Expected: 1.1% Previous: 0.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-14
  • Trade deal bets kept the Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso, Indonesian Rupiah and Malaysian Ringgit afloat despite $USD strength. This is the key fundamental driver for #ASEAN FX.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/aB8qP3JsB4 https://t.co/lLPkHZkj4n
US Jobs Data May Validate Bearish Crude Oil Price Chart Setup

US Jobs Data May Validate Bearish Crude Oil Price Chart Setup

2019-03-08 01:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices may fall as US jobs data validates bearish technical cues
  • Gold prices locked in place on Treasury bond yields, US Dollar divergence
  • Commodities may not do better than standstill into the trading week-end

Another aborted attempt at recovery left crude oil prices little-changed by the close of Thursday’s trading session. Early gains may have reflected digestion of weekly EIA data. While the headline crude inventory rise topped forecasts, gasoline and distillate storage saw sharp drawdowns and measures of implied demand for petroleum-based products edged up overall. ECB-inspired risk aversion saw gains unravel however.

Gold prices marked time in the meanwhile. A dovish message from ECB President Mario Draghi sent EUR/USD sharply lower and stoked global slowdown worries, fueling haven-seeking demand. Taken together, that understandably buoyed the US Dollar. The dour mood also weighed on bond yields however, putting gold’s properties as an anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing asset benchmark at cross purposes.

COMMODITIES MAY NOT MANAGE MORE THAN STANDSTILL ON US JOBS DATA

February’s US employment report now enters the spotlight. A slowdown in job creation is expected but the jobless rate as well as the pace of wage inflation are expected to tick higher. Taken together, that would seem to imply reduced labor market slack that might inspire bets on a less dovish Fed stance than currently accounted for. That bodes ill for gold while oil marks time as the outcome’s supportive implications for demand clash with worries about relatively tighter policy amid a global slowdown.

Recent US data flow has dramatically deteriorated relative to baseline forecasts however, hinting that analysts’ models are overstating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for disappointment. Such a result might furnish fresh fodder for global slowdown fears. In this scenario, it might be crude that finds an unambiguous reason for weakness while gold is held in place as bond yields and the Greenback diverge.

Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices continue to mark time in a choppy digestion range after dropping to a five-week low. Near-term support is at 1276.50, with a daily close below that opening the door for a challenge of the 1260.80-63.76 area. Alternatively, a move back above support-turned-resistance at 1307.32 sets the stage for a retest of a recently broken rising trend line set form mid-November, now at 1330.50.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are struggling to find lasting directional momentum but a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern along with negative RSI divergence continue to hint that a top is taking shape. A daily close below support in the 55.37-75 area would suggest the uptrend from 2019 lows has ended, setting the stage for resumption of the larger down move from mid-April. The next layer of support lines up in the 50.15-51.33 zone. Alternatively, a rebound above resistance in the 57.96-59.05 region targets the underside of a rising trend line support-turned-resistance, now at 62.31.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.