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Gold Prices May Fall Further as US Data Shifts Fed Policy Outlook

Gold Prices May Fall Further as US Data Shifts Fed Policy Outlook

2019-02-04 05:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices fall as US payrolls, ISM data boost yields and USD
  • Crude oil prices rise on biggest OPEC output drop in two years
  • US durables, factory orders data may bode ill for commodities

Gold prices fell Friday as January’s unexpectedly strong US jobs and manufacturing ISM data sent yields higher alongside the Dollar, undercutting the appeal of non-interest-bearing and anti-fiat assets. Crude oil prices rose as evidence of the US economy’s resilience lifted risk appetite. The upswing was sustained even as investors’ mood soured later in the day on news of the largest OPEC output drop in 2 years.

COMMODITIES MAY FALL ON US DURABLE GOODS, FACTORY ORDERS DATA

Looking ahead, data on US durable goods and factory orders enters the spotlight. While both releases are now somewhat dated having been delayed by the US government shutdown, they may nonetheless inform broader growth and Fed policy bets. Improvements are expected on both fronts and US news-flow’s recent outperformance relative to forecasts hints the results may be rosier still.

If Friday’s price dynamics are sustained, upbeat US economic data has scope to weigh on gold as investors’ baseline projection for the path of US interest rates moves to a less dovish setting along the expected policy spectrum. Crude oil may falter however as worries about inadequate monetary support continue to overshadow signs of economic strength.

Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices edged lower after putting in a Shooting Star candlestick on a test of chart inflection point resistance at 1323.60. From here, a push through the dense support layer underpinned by a rising trend line at 1287.98 initially exposes the range floor at 1276.50. Alternatively, a break above 1323.60 targets a pivotal top in the 1357.50-66.06 region.

Chart of Gold Prices (Daily)

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices pushed through resistance in the 54.51-81 area, opening the door for a test of the 57.96-59.05 region next. A further push beyond that targets the underside of former trend line support, now at 61.15. Alternatively, a move back below 54.51 initially exposes the 49.41-50.15 zone.

Chart of Light Crude Oil Futures

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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