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Crude Oil Prices May Pull Back After Venezuela Crisis Stokes Gains

Crude Oil Prices May Pull Back After Venezuela Crisis Stokes Gains

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

Crude oil prices jumped amid growing tensions in Venezuela on Friday. Opposition leader and National Assembly President Juan Guaido invoked constitutional powers to declare himself President, alleging that the election of Nicolas Maduro to a second term was illegitimate. Mr Maduro is understandably of another mind, stoking worries about supply disruption from the oil-exporting nation.

Meanwhile, gold prices surged despite rising Treasury bond yields – a move that might have been expected to undermine the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets – as ebbing haven demand sent the US Dollar tumbling. That spoke to the anti-fiat appeal of the yellow metal. Hopes for a breakthrough in upcoming US-China trade talks appear to have driven the move.

CRUDE OIL AND GOLD MAY FALL IN RISK-OFF TRADE, CBO OUTLOOK DUE

Looking ahead, sentiment trends may set the tone for key commodities. Bellwether S&P 500 futures are pointing cautiously lower, suggesting a bit of moderation after Friday’s risk-on swell. That may lead pro-cyclical assets like crude oil lower alongside stock prices. Gold might have been expected to rise as yields retreat but a recovery in the US Dollar might undermine gains.

The US Congressional Budget Office is due to release its annual budget and economic outlook. A significant downgrade in growth projections might stoke simmering global slowdown worries. That might make a corrective pullback in risk-geared assets into something more significant. Another round of spirited liquidation seems likely to prove negative for most top-traded raw materials.

See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices overturned a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern identified three weeks ago, surging to challenge resistance in the 1302.97-07.32 area. A daily close above this barrier initially targets a chart inflection point at 1323.60. Alternatively, a turn below rising trend support at 1280.57 exposes the 1260.80-63.76 region.

Crude Oil Prices May Pull Back After Venezuela Crisis Stokes Gains

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are struggling to find follow-through on a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern, but the setup is yet to be invalidated. That would require a daily close above resistance in the 54.51-55.24 area, which would then expose the chart inflection point at 59.05. Alternatively, a belated downturn that clears support in the 49.41-50.15 zone opens the door for a test of the 42.05-55 region.

Chart of Light Crude Oil Futures

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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