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Gold Prices Might Make Good on Signs of Topping on Fed Beige Book

Gold Prices Might Make Good on Signs of Topping on Fed Beige Book

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices struggle to make good technical signs of topping
  • Upbeat Fed Beige Book survey might ignite selling pressure
  • Crude oil prices look to EIA inventory flow data for direction

Gold prices oscillated in familiar territory yesterday, echoing seesaw swings in the US Dollar and Treasury bond yields. Crude oil prices traded higher, tracking the bellwether S&P 500 index amid a broad-based improvement in risk appetite. Progress beyond the recent range proved to be elusive however.

GOLD MAY FALL ON FED BEIGE BOOK, CRUDE OIL EYES EIA DATA

Looking ahead, the Fed’s Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions is on tap. A relatively upbeat tone echoing improvement in US economic data relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year may force a rethink of the dovish shift in rate hike bets, boosting the US Dollar at gold’s expense.

As for crude, it will focus on EIA inventory flow data. Forecast envision a 1.49-million-barrel drawdown. A private-sector estimate from API called for a more modest 560k outflow. If this proves to foreshadow official results, oil prices may face selling pressure.

Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are struggling to make good on a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern, but the setup is yet to be conclusively invalidated. A move below initial support at 1282.27 targets the 1257.60-66.44 area (former resistance, rising trend line). Alternatively, a push above resistance in the 1302.97-07.32 region exposes a minor hurdle at 1323.60, followed by a trend-defining top in the 1357.50-66.06 zone.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are treading water below minor resistance at 53.39. A break above it exposes the 54.51-55.24 area, followed by the next upside hurdle at 59.05. Alternatively, a daily close back below the 49.41-50.15 zone opens the door for a retest of the 42.05-55 region.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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