GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
- Gold price rise loses steam, chart setup warns of topping
- Crude oil prices recoil from resistance near $49/bbl mark
- S&P 500 futures pointing higher, API inventory data due
Gold prices struggled to find a lasting lead yesterday, with another foray to the upside cut short intraday as a recovery in risk appetite sent yields higher and undermined the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets. Crude oil prices suffered a similar fate, hitting a three-week high intraday only to surrender most of the advance by the close of the session.
Broadly speaking, the markets’ non-committal disposition might reflect the broad range of uncertainties muddying sentiment. A clear message on the progress of US-China trade talks now underway in Beijing is absent, a partial shutdown of the US government continues, and economic data is sending mixed signals. A gauge of US service sector activity disappointed yesterday, clashing with last week’s upbeat jobs data.
GOLD MAY STRUGGLE FOR DIRECTION, API INVENTORY DATA DUE
From here, a relatively muted data docket is likely to keep sentiment trends at the forefront. Bellwether S&P 500 futures are pointing convincingly higher, hinting a risk-on bias. That may bode ill for gold as yields continue to recover. Follow-through may be elusive yet again however, with traders reluctant to commit before Wednesday’s FOMC minutes publication and Thursday’s speech from Fed Chair Powell.
Cycle-sensitive crude oil may rise with shares if the upbeat mood is lasting but incoming API inventory statistics might muddy the waters. The private-sector estimate of last week’s net change in US stockpiles will be sized up against forecasts projecting a 10.8-million-barrel drawdown to be reported in official EIA figures Wednesday. If API reports a smaller outflow or even a build, that might pressure prices lower.
Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The appearance of a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern hints gold prices may be topping. A daily close below initial support at 1282.27 opens the door for a test of the1257.60-66.44 area (former resistance, rising trend line). Alternatively, a push above the 1302.97-07.32 zone exposes a minor barrier at 1323.60, followed by a critical ceiling in the 1357.50-66.06 region.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices continue to test support-turned-resistance at 49.41, the November 29 low. A daily close above it initially paves the way for a challenge of the 54.51-55.24 area. Alternatively, a turn lower that takes prices below the 42.05-55 zone sets the stage for a test of the August 2016 bottom at 39.19.
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES
- See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices
- Having trouble with your strategy? Here’s the #1 mistake that traders make
- Join a Trading Q&A webinar to answer your commodity market questions
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter
