Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.


  • Gold prices pull back as the US Dollar finds haven demand
  • Further USD gains may counter support from falling yields
  • Crude oil eyes EIA outlook, API inventory data for direction

Gold prices retreated after hitting the highest level since mid-July as the US Dollar recovered, undermining the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives. What began as a tepid recovery after APAC markets took their turn pricing in Friday’s disappointing US payrolls data gathered steam as stocks plunged on Wall Street, speaking to the Greenback’s haven appeal.

Sentiment trends may continue to drive price action in the day ahead. Futures tracking the bellwether S&P 500 index are pointing lower, hinting that a risk-off bias may translate into weaker bond yields and offer support for the yellow metal. Gains may be capped if the Dollar continues to benefit from safety-seeking capital flows however.


Crude oil prices edged down but remained confirmed within a range hemming them in for the past two weeks. From here, the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook report and API inventory flow data is on tap. The former may reiterate the point that swelling US output threatens to undermine OPEC+ efforts to boost prices. The latter will be sized up against forecast envisioning a 2.75 million barrel outflow.

Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!


Gold prices corrected lower to retest resistance-turned-support in the 1235.24-41.64 area. A break back below it on a daily closing basis exposes a support cluster with a lower boundary marked by a rising trend line at 1208.06. Resistance runs through a chart inflection zone as well as former trend support set form December 2015. That is now capped at 1272.71.

Gold Prices in the Balance if Yields, US Dollar Diverge Again


Crude oil prices continue to mark time between resistance at 53.33 (former support, falling trend line) and support at 49.16, the October 9, 2017 low. A break downward exposes the August 31, 2017 bottom at 45.62. Alternatively, a push above the range top opens the door for a retest of support-turned-resistance at 55.24.

Gold Prices in the Balance if Yields, US Dollar Diverge Again


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter