News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • The morning after the Fed has produced some robust moves in markets, with both stocks and bonds putting in a notable leap. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:https://t.co/7sQ4d63PLM https://t.co/vfrKuhDUce
  • Gold trades back down to $1,750 as US real yields tick higher $XAUUSD #Gold https://t.co/yMtnYCBsaa
  • Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD Snaps Back to Key Support https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2021/09/23/Canadian-Dollar-Price-Forecast-USD-CAD-USDCAD-Snaps-Back-to-Key-Support-Zone.html $USDCAD https://t.co/BGiAkAI3zy
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: 77 counterparties take $1.352 trillion at Fed's fixed-rate reverse repo $USD $DXY https://t.co/kjecsXvpVU
  • EUR/USD attempts to halt a five day decline as the Federal Reserve sticks to the sidelines. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/ig9bGLj35i https://t.co/YPksmNdJLR
  • US Markit Composite PMI for September fell to 54.5 from 55.4, whereby the services and manufacturing figures fell to 54.4 and 60.5 respectively, both missing analyst estimates. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/4lFZGRufsM https://t.co/DuPcQtaBz0
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq Rally After the Fed; 10 Year Yield to Two-Month-Highs https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/09/23/SPX-SPY-ES-SP500-Nasdaq-NQ-QQQ-Rally-After-the-Fed-10-Year-Yield-2-Month-High.html https://t.co/peftVleO0y
  • #Bitcoin Outlook: $BTCUSD Bounce From 40K, Fake-out or Shake-out? - https://t.co/ixsRMKgCom https://t.co/KDQv4wgfot
  • While JPY gets clobbered, CHF decides to turn a blind eye to yields $CHF https://t.co/MViWZiiPZ7
  • The surprise 100 basis point cut from the Turkish central bank (to 18%) generated the expected pressure for $USDTRY. That said, I don't think it was the market that decided the momentum should die out at 8.8000 again... https://t.co/4jmOPnzzK9
Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Fall as FOMC Minutes Prompt Fed Rethink

Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Fall as FOMC Minutes Prompt Fed Rethink

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices drop on dimming OPEC+ output cut prospects, EIA data
  • Gold prices rise as markets find dovish cues comments from Fed’s Powell
  • November FOMC minutes may prompt a rethink of Fed rate hike outlook

Crude oil prices turned lower after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said his country will not act alone to stabilize the market while Russian President Putin said prices at $60/barrel are “absolutely fine”, implying that Riyadh may struggle to bring Moscow on board for another coordinated output cut at the upcoming OPEC meeting on December 6.

The WTI contract mounted a brief rebound as the US Dollar plunged in the wake of comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell that traders interpreted as dovish, but selling pressure returned in short order. That looks to have reflected EIA data showing inventories added 3.58 million barrels last week, topping forecasts calling for a meager 590.1k barrel increase.

Gold prices had little trouble capitalizing on the Greenback’s downturn however, rushing upward as the benchmark currency’s drop alongside Treasury yields and a flattening of the priced-in 2019 rate hike outlook implied in Fed Funds futures stoked demand for anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets. The rally conspicuously failed to breach near-term resistance however (see chart below).

FOMC MINUTES MAY BOOST US DOLLAR, HURT COMMODITIES

Minutes from November’s FOMC meeting now enter the spotlight. The policy statement emerging from the gathering sounded decidedly upbeat. A similarly chipper tone in this release may force a rethink of investors’ reading of Mr Powell’s remarks yesterday. That may inspire a recovery in the US Dollar, applying pressure to gold and crude oil prices alike.

The markets seemed to latch onto the Chair’s characterization of current rates as “just below” the neutral range, where policy is neither stimulative nor contractionary. That range is quite broad at 2.5-3.5 percent. Taking its midline at 3 percent as reference implies that “neutral” is about 75-100 basis points away, which is conveniently in line with the Fed’s September forecast. That hardly sounds like a dovish pivot.

Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices remain wedged between a falling trend line set from late October and support in the 1211.05-14.30 area. A daily close above resistance – now at 1225.88 – opens the door for a test of the 1235.24-41.64 zone. Alternatively, a move through support as well as a rising trend line at 1203.28 exposes the range floor in the 1180.86-87.83 region.

Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Fall as FOMC Minutes Prompt Fed Rethink

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices continue to consolidate below resistance in the 52.10-83 area. The appearance of positive RSI divergence hints a bounce may be ahead, with a break higher confirmed on a daily closing basis exposing the 54.48-55.21 zone. Alternatively, a breach below the October 2017 lowat 49.16 targets the August 31 2017 bottom at 45.62.

Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Fall as FOMC Minutes Prompt Fed Rethink

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES