We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian and New Zealand Dollars trimmed their gains as optimism on the US-China “phase one” trade deal faded. NZD/USD is at risk to turning lower on signs of technical indecision $AUDUSD $NZDUSD #tradewars - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2019/12/16/Australian-Dollar-and-New-Zealand-Dollar-Outlook-as-Week-Begins.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/SmVBWwojc3
  • - The Singapore Dollar (SGD) presents a unique undertaking for traders - It is guided by the MAS, which manages the exchange rate instead of short-term rates - Learn the principals of developing an SGD fundamental forecast to trade USD/SGD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2019/09/03/The-Singapore-Dollar-and-MAS-What-is-SGD-and-How-to-Trade-it.html
  • #DidYouKnow a #Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/eWM70sTfq3
  • Natural Gas trading is popular among traders due to its volatility. How can you trade this? Find out here: https://t.co/GSzSS9fn7Z https://t.co/bl0lp9NtkQ
  • #EURUSD pivot points (daily) – S3: 1.0991, S2: 1.1065, S1: 1.1093, R1: 1.1167, R2: 1.1214, R3: 1.1288- https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Hello there, traders! Themes for this week's webinar: - US-China #tradewar - #HongKongProstests: Carrie Lam's visit to Beijing - #UKElections2019 recap + outlook - Government shutdown in 2020? - Update on #RCEP - CRUCIAL rate decision this week⬇️ https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/146770987
  • With increasing volatility in weather patterns, how might storms, hurricanes, and floods rattle the supply chain for petroleum-based products and impact crude oil prices? Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/O4dgBl47fq https://t.co/eMb7iCfdqS
  • Join analyst @DavidJSong at 5:30 PM ET/10:30 PM GMT for your weekly update on key news trading events. Register here: https://t.co/gBlrRpCc55 https://t.co/1rVzPr6gx4
  • See the DailyFX Fundamental and Technical forecasts for the week ahead on the major currencies, indices and commodities here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2019/12/15/Dow-Pound-and-Aussie-Dollar-Test-Post-Trade-War-Election-Breakouts.html
  • The US-China agreement brings this scene from camp cinema history to mind: https://t.co/WsfoGMZbw1 via @GIPHY https://t.co/h045efj8Em
Gold Prices May Fall on US CPI Uptick, Hawkish Powell Comments

Gold Prices May Fall on US CPI Uptick, Hawkish Powell Comments

2018-11-14 05:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist


  • Gold prices may resume selloff on US CPI uptick, hawkish Powell remarks
  • Crude oil prices suffer largest drop in almost three years on OPEC outlook
  • API inventory flow data eyed after oil prices break uptrend from 2016 low

Gold prices struggled for meaningful upside progress despite a weaker US Dollar, which typically boosts anti-fiat demand for the yellow metal. That might reflect traders’ unwillingness to commit ahead of key event risk on the horizon.

US CPI is expected to rebound to 2.5 percent in October after hitting a seven-month low of 2.3 percent in the prior month, and an upside surprise seems plausible. That may boost Fed rate hike bets, a shift that may be reinforced by scheduled comments from dependably hawkish Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

As it stands, the markets price in a 76.6 percent probability of a rate hike in December and two more increases in 2019. For their part, Fed officials have projected three increases next year. A repricing of baseline bets closer toward the central bank’s scenario is likely to weigh on gold.


Meanwhile, crude oil prices suffered the largest one-day loss since February 2016 as OPEC downgraded its demand outlook for next year. Meanwhile, the EIA drilling productivity report said output will rise by a further 113k barrels per day in December.

Looking ahead, APIinventory flow statistics are in focus. The outcome will be sized up against forecasts calling for official EIA statistics to reveal a 2.89 million barrel increase. Prices may fall further if API calls for a larger inflow, whereas a more modest increase or even a surprise draw may inspire a bounce.

Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!


Gold prices continue to hover at upward-sloping counter-trend support, now at 1199.27. Breaking below this barrier targets the 1180.86-87.83 area next. Alternatively, a daily close back above support-turned-resistance in the 1211.05-14.30 region paves the way for a retest of the 1260.80-66.44 zone.

Gold price chart - daily


Crude oil prices plunged through support guiding the uptrend from February 2016, ratifying long-term topping cues and opening the door deeper losses. For now, a daily close below support in the 54.48-55.21 area opens the door for a test of the 52.34-83 zone. Immediate support-turned-resistance is at 58.11, with a reversal back above that and the underside of trend line support at 58.67 exposes the $60/bbl figure anew.

Crude oil price chart - daily


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.