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Gold Prices Struggle for Direction, Chart Setup Warns of Weakness

Gold Prices Struggle for Direction, Chart Setup Warns of Weakness

2018-10-22 04:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices struggle for direction as US Dollar, Treasury yields diverge
  • Crude oil prices manage tepid rebound following a test of trend support
  • Risk trends may set near-term cues, S&P 500 futures signal risk-on bias

Commodity prices were in digestion mode on Friday amid a lull in top-tier scheduled event risk, as expected. Gold prices marked time amid conflicting moves in the US Dollar and bond yields. The former corrected lower, offering support for the anti-fiat yellow metal, but the latter undercut the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets. Meanwhile, crude oil prices corrected gently higher.

CRUDE OIL MAY RISE BUT GOLD TO STRUGGLE IN RISK-ON TRADE

From here, another quiet day on the calendar may allow sentiment trends to dominate. Bellwether S&P 500 futures are pointing gently higher, hinting at a cautiously risk-on bias. That might be supportive for crude oil prices but gold may continue to struggle for direction as benchmark yields and the Greenback divergence. In any case, lasting follow-through is unlikely as traders await heftier catalysts due later in the week.

See our gold forecast to learn what is likely to drive price action through year-end!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are marking time below resistance in the 1235.24-41.64 area but negative RSI divergence hints a turn lower is brewing ahead. From here, a daily close below resistance-turned-supportin the 1211.05-14.30 zone opens the door for a test of the September 28 low at 1180.86. Alternatively, a push above 1241.64 exposes the 1260.80-66.44 region.

Gold Prices Struggle for Direction, Chart Setup Warns of Weakness

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are sitting at support guiding the move higher since early February, now in the 66.70-68.60 area. A break below that targets the support shelf in the 64.26-45 zone. Alternatively, a rebound above the 70.05-26 region targets trend line support-turned-resistance at 71.68.Longer-term positioning hints a longer-term top may be taking shape.

Gold Prices Struggle for Direction, Chart Setup Warns of Weakness

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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