News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USDCAD taking on a new life now, back above the longer-term trendline +370 from the failed breakout earlier this month https://t.co/2oP2ky434R https://t.co/BhnSTJFv2m
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/7nP2tv6q9a
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.03% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.07% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.13% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.41% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.49% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.54% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ChEmo0URYP
  • Heads Up:🇨🇦 New Housing Price Index YoY (MAY) due at 12:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 9.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-18
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/v6m2DLdhHa
  • Heads Up:🇮🇳 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due at 11:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-18
  • Italy PM Draghi states that more stimulus is needed to return to pre-covid - must be vigilant on inflation expectations
  • China's Cabinet will grant subsidy to farmers - state media
  • ECB extends leverage ratio to banks until March 2022
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 84.85%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.76%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/9FBAOSUkA5
Crude Oil Price Gains May Stall as Gold Drops on Fed Rate Hike Bets

Crude Oil Price Gains May Stall as Gold Drops on Fed Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil prices surge on supply squeeze fears before Iran sanctions
  • Gold prices fall as swelling Fed rate hike bets boost yields, US Dollar
  • Risk aversion may see oil rally stall as gold prices continue to decline

Crude oil prices returned to the offensive after a brief pause in a move that the newswires attributed to fears of a global supply squeeze as sanctions are re-imposed on exports from Iran. The move was capped after EIA inventory data showed a dramatically larger-than-expected build of 7.98 million barrels. That marked the largest one-week stockpile increase since early March 2017.

Gold prices fell as traders saw cooling Italian budget woes as giving the Fed a freer hand to press on with interest rate hikes, as expected. The metal fell alongside the spread between Italian and German 10-year bond yields – a measure of the added risk in lending to Rome versus Berlin – while a steepening of the 2019 tightening path implied in Fed Funds futures drove the US Dollar and Treasury bond yields up in tandem.

SWELLING FED RATE HIKE BETS MAY CAP OIL RALLY, SINK GOLD

The hawkish shift in Fed policy bets seems to be weighing on risk appetite, particularly after Chair Jerome Powell signaled that rates may rise beyond a “neutral” level. That drove shares sharply lower in late Wall Street trade and the risk-off mood seems be finding follow-through, with futures tracking the bellwether S&P 500 stock index facing severe pressure in Asia Pacific trade.

What this means for key commodities is somewhat clouded. Risk aversion might have been expected to boost gold as yields decline, but probably won’t happen considering it is in fact a rise in rates and an accompanying US Dollar upswing that has soured sentiment. In this environment, the standby anti-fiat alternative seems likely to continue downward. The risk-off mood may also slow the oil rally, at least for now.

See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are retreating from resistance below 1214.30 (range top, trend line set from mid-April). The September 28 swing low at 1180.86 marks initial support, with a daily close below that exposing the mid-August bottom at 1160.37. Alternatively, a sustained breach above resistance sees the next upside hurdle in the 1235.24-41.64 zone.

Crude Oil Price Gains May Stall as Gold Drops on Fed Rate Hike Bets

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices continue to grind through resistance in the 75.00-77.54 area (August 2011 – June 2012 lows, 76.4% Fibonacci expansion). A daily close above its upper bound exposes the 100% level at 81.58. Alternatively, a reversal back below the 75.00 figure paves the way for a retest of the 50% Fib at 73.02.

Crude Oil Price Gains May Stall as Gold Drops on Fed Rate Hike Bets

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES