GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
- Gold prices drop as trade war, emerging market fears boost US Dollar
- Crude oil prices struggle to extend rally amid market-wide risk aversion
- Liquidity drain on US, Canada closures may amplify kneejerk volatility
Gold prices fell as haven demand buoyed the US Dollar, applying familiar downward pressure to the standby anti-fiat alternative. The MSCI World benchmark stock index fell for a second day, shedding 0.3 percent amid worries about stress in emerging market assets and the escalating trade war between the US and China.
Sentiment-sensitive crude oil prices likewise tracked lower. Headwinds from broad-based risk aversion were compounded by de-facto pressure from the greenback’s advance since prices are denominated in terms of the leading reserve currency on global financial markets.
THIN LIQUIDITY MAY AMPLIFY KNEEJERK VOLATILITY
From here, market closures in the US and Canada for the Labor Day holiday are likely to sap liquidity and may undermine immediate follow-through. Still, diminished participation may amplify kneejerk volatility if a particularly eye-catching headline hits the wires. Traders would be wise to proceed with caution.
Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices are probing below counter-trend support set from mid-August lows, with a sustained break exposing initially exposing the August 24 low at 1183.28. A further push below that targets the swing low at 1160.37. Alternatively, a rise back abovethe August 28 high at 1214.30 opens the door for a retest of the 1235.24-41.64 area (Dec’17 support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement).
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices’ upward momentum has slowed a bit along the way toward resistance marked by the 38.2%Fibonacci expansionat 70.99. A turn lower from here that take prices below the 23.6% level at 68.49 targets rising trend support in the 65.08-66.91 area. Alternatively, a push above resistance exposes the next upside barrier in the 72.88-73.02 area (May 22 high, 50% Fib).
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES
- See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices
- Having trouble with your strategy? Here’s the #1 mistake that traders make
- Join a Trading Q&A webinar to answer your commodity market questions
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter
