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Gold Prices Aim to Extend Gains But Follow-Through Suspect

Gold Prices Aim to Extend Gains But Follow-Through Suspect

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Commodities rise as signs of NAFTA breakthrough weigh on US Dollar
  • Crude oil, gold prices aim higher after near-term chart resistance break
  • US trade and consumer sentiment figures may hint at trade war impact

US Dollar weakness buoyed commodities for a second day. Gold prices rose as the greenback’s decline buoyed anti-fiat alternatives epitomized by the yellow metal. Meanwhile, crude oil prices found de-facto support because prices are denominated in USD terms on global markets.

The benchmark unit appeared to shed some haven-linked demand as risk appetite firmed on signs of progress in NAFTA renegotiation efforts. The US and Mexico have reportedly reached agreement. The spotlight now turns to Canada, with Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland due in Washington Tuesday.

US DATA TO HINT AT TRADE WAR IMPACT, CANADA TO REJOIN NAFTA TALKS

If Ms Freeland signals that her country will assent to the agreement struck between Washington and Mexico, another risk-on push may weaken the US unit further and boost commodities. Finding lasting follow-through on such moves might prove difficult however considering the Fed remains the most hawkish among its G10 counterparts, making USD a natural beneficiary when sentiment firms and investors’ focus turns to yields.

US trade balance and consumer confidence figures are in focus on the data front. The trade deficit is expected to widen while sentiment ticks lower. Taken together, the outcomes may help illustrate the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff hikes on the broader economy, hinting at what they might mean for monetary policy and asset prices in the months ahead.

The weekly set of API inventory flow statistics is also due to cross the wires. It will be weighed up against expectations projecting a 684k barrel outflow from crude oil storage to be reported in official EIA figures due Wednesday. A smaller drawdown may weigh on prices while a larger one might help extend recent gains.

Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices breached resistance in the 1204.59-08.72 area (August 3 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to expose the 1235.24-41.64 region (Dec’17 support, 38.2% level). A further push above sees the next upside barrier in the 1260.80-66.44 zone (Oct’17 support, 50% Fib). Alternatively, a move back below 1204.59 targets the August 24 lowat 1183.28.

Gold Prices Aim to Extend Gains But Follow-Through Suspect

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices edged through resistance marked by the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion at 68.49, opening the door for a challenge of the 38.2% level at 70.99. Extending higher beyond that targets the 0.72.88-73.02 area (May 22 high, 50% Fib). Alternatively, a reversal back below 68.49 – now recast as support – puts rising trend support in the 64.81-66.67 zone back in focus.

Gold Prices Aim to Extend Gains But Follow-Through Suspect

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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