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Gold Prices Rise as Cooling Trade War Worries Weigh on US Dollar

Gold Prices Rise as Cooling Trade War Worries Weigh on US Dollar

2018-08-20 04:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices rise as ebbing trade war worries hurt US Dollar
  • Crude oil prices unable to sustain sentiment-driven recovery
  • Risk appetite trends, headline flow in focus to start the week

Gold prices turned higher Friday as improving risk appetite triggered a reversal of haven-seeking capital flows buoying the US Dollar, sending the currency lower and offering a lift to the perennially anti-fiat yellow metal. Investors’ rosier disposition reflected hopes for de-escalation in the trade war between the US and China.

Crude oil prices attempted to rally intraday but the move failed to find follow-though, with the WTI contract heading into the weekend little-changed. Early gains seemed to be sentiment-driven, with commodities as an asset class enjoying an improvement in broader risk appetite.

MARKET SENTIMENT TRENDS, HEADLINE RISK IN FOCUS

Looking ahead, a lull in scheduled event risk sees likely to keep risk on/off dynamics as the leading driver of price action. A clear-cut lead is absent here as well however, with FTSE 100 and S&P 500 futures trading conspicuously flat before markets in London and New York come online.

On balance, this might translate into a consolidative session. Traders would be wise to remain vigilant however. A step back toward the brink of broader trade wars or renewed turmoil in emerging market assets may be no more than a single headline away. Proceeding with caution seems prudent.

Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are attempting a tepid recovery after finding support below the $1200/oz figure. A daily close above former support at 1204.59 would break the near-term down trend, paving the way for a retest of the 1236.66-40.86 area. Immediate support is at 1160.37, the August 16 low.

Gold Prices Rise as Cooling Trade War Worries Weigh on US Dollar

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices continue to mark time above support in the 63.96-64.26 area. A daily close below this barrier initially exposes 61.84. Alternatively, a turn back above trend line support-turned-resistance at 68.57 opens the door for another challenge of the 69.89-70.41 zone.

Gold Prices Rise as Cooling Trade War Worries Weigh on US Dollar

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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