We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $SGD is driven by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which manages exchange rate instead of short-term interest rates. Learn more on the SGD and how to trade it. Get your SGD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/eWLM9XZs5Y https://t.co/HdiCLtSFre
  • #Bitcoin prices may see a pickup in volatility ahead of the 2020 halving as the #coronavirus pandemic threatens to disrupt cross-continental $BTC mining operations. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/BoH24MVf4P https://t.co/4bgTwNqVvG
  • (Weekly Outlook) The Japanese #Yen faced a mixed week against currencies such as the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and Canadian Dollar. What is ahead for $USDJPY, $EURJPY, $GBPJPY and $CAD/JPY? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2020/04/04/Japanese-Yen-Weekly-Forecast-USDJPY-EURJPY-GBPJPY-CADJPY.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/Flgbd5b2ag
  • Foreign exchange – or “#forex” – markets often pay close attention to politics and central bank policy. We offer a model for traders to gauge their impact on exchange rates. Get your market insight from @ZabelinDimitri and @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/FbXc1Awu6a https://t.co/Qbhs4ndgPa
  • Why must financial market traders monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/AldbSctm9V
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/yF133btXFd https://t.co/Sjnr0iVgAf
  • Upside momentum stalls with the #DAX and #FTSE 100 vulnerable to testing lower levels as the economic backdrop deteriorates further. Get your #equities technical analysis from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/BFIaXTfDcs https://t.co/q0Mso4zWlT
  • RT @iv_technicals: *TRUMP SAYS HE'D USE TARIFFS IF NEEDED TO PROTECT OIL INDUSTRY - BBG #OOTT #WTI $USO
  • After the pattern is composed with the closing of the signal candle, then you can look to the following candle to identify a clear bias and risk points. Learn how to apply this knowledge to a trading strategy here: https://t.co/uh3NwgHBVv https://t.co/yl4KUMNmUh
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia here: https://t.co/r3Ku0p9dw1 https://t.co/CU5vMilpLH
Gold Prices May Fall on Hawkish Fed, US Bond Supply Boost

Gold Prices May Fall on Hawkish Fed, US Bond Supply Boost

2018-07-31 03:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices stalling before Fed rate decision, Treasury funding news
  • Crude oil prices rise on UK supply disruption, US auto rules proposal
  • EIA production report, API inventory flow statistics due for release

Gold prices continued to struggle for lasting direction Monday, with traders understandably unwilling to commit one way or another ahead of the upcoming Fed rate decision. A hike is not expected but officials might dial up hawkish rhetoric in the policy statement to assert their independence after US President Donald Trump talked down rate hikes recently.

The fading appeal non-interest-bearing assets is likely to hurt the yellow metal in this case. The fall may be amplified as the US Treasury reveals how it plans to fund a deficit made larger by a $1.5 trillion tax cut and $300 billion in new spending. Officials said today that third-quarter borrowing will be $329 billion, up from April’s $273 billion projection. Added issuance may amplify upward pressure on yields.

Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend!

CRUDE OIL EYES EIA OUTPUT REPORT, API INVENTORY DATA

Crude oil prices moved higher as three UK oil fields shut down ahead of strikes. Meanwhile, a joint draft report from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency said a Trump administration proposal to halt higher auto efficiency requirements after 2020 will boost US fuel consumption by 500k barrels per day.

From here, the spotlight turns to monthly EIA production statistics as well as the API estimate of weekly inventory flows. The former will help inform bets on the extent to which growing US output can offset demand pressures. The latter will be judged with reference to official figures due Wednesday that are projected to report a 2.26 million barrel outflow.

See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices remain locked in a familiar range above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 1217.29. A daily close below this barrier initially exposes the 50% levelat 1202.28. Alternatively, a rebound above support-turned-resistance at 1236.66 opens the door for a retest of the 1260.80-66.44 area.

Gold Prices May Fall on Hawkish Fed, US Bond Supply Boost

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices edged above resistance at 69.53, targeting the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 71.52 next. A further push beyond that aims for the 50% level at 72.89. Alternatively, a move back below 69.53 – now recast as support, paves the way for another challenge of trend line support set from early February (now in the 66.47-67.72 area).

Gold Prices May Fall on Hawkish Fed, US Bond Supply Boost

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.