News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The 10-day range and realized volatility (ATR) on $USDMXN are the lowest since 2008 and 2014 respectively. Breakout risk is high - when the right spark comes along (eg FOMC)
  • Bitcoin taking a breather today after rallying back above $47,000. 50-day MA crosses back above the 200-day MA $BTCUSD #Bitcoin
  • AUD/USD extends the decline following the larger-than-expected contraction in Australia employment as fresh data prints coming out of the US fuel speculation for an imminent shift in monetary policy. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:
  • Gold prices are plodding along below symmetrical triangle support, with momentum indicators starting to point lower. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • Ouch. S&P Global said today that El Salvador's announcement that Bitcoin was legal tender represented an 'immediate' negative credit risk to its B- standing. They warn of trouble with IMF fund access and fiscal vulnerabilities. #Bitcoin
  • 🇺🇸 Overall Net Capital Flows (JUL) Actual: $126B Previous: $32B
  • 🇺🇸 Foreign Bond Investment (JUL) Actual: $10.2B Previous: $10.9B
  • US equities have come under a bit of pressure recently which has played in nicely with the recent trend in the S&P 500, which has been bouncing off a key trendline support for the past year. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here:
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Overall Net Capital Flows (JUL) due at 20:00 GMT (15min) Previous: $31.5B
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Foreign Bond Investment (JUL) due at 20:00 GMT (15min) Previous: $10.9B
Gold Prices May Rise as US, China Trade Spat Sinks Bond Yields

Gold Prices May Rise as US, China Trade Spat Sinks Bond Yields

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • Gold prices may extend gains as Sino-US trade war sours sentiment
  • Uneven US Dollar gains may be insufficient offset to bond yield drop
  • Crude oil prices may overlook API data with OPEC+ meeting eyed

Gold prices marked time yesterday, digesting losses after Friday’s dramatic selloff. A tepid downshift in Treasury bond yields offered a bit of support as trade war jitters undermined risk appetite but a resilient US Dollar offered a counterweight, capping the capacity for anti-fiat gains.

Crude oil prices mounted a spirited recovery after Friday’s dramatic plunge as markets position for this week’s much-anticipated OPEC+ meeting. The gathering of cartel officials and their counterparts from like-minded producer nations will weigh a Russia- and Saudi-backed proposal to ease coordinated output curbs.

Moscow and Riyadh – until recently the leading voices directing the scheme as an effort to drain brimming global inventories and boost prices – now want to scale it back to offset supply disruptions from Venezuela and Iran. This is opposed by other producers however, setting the stage for a contentious sit-down.

Against this backdrop, prices rose amid reports that preliminary talks envision an output boost of 300-600k barrels per day that lasts for the next several months. That is a far more modest proposal than the 1.5 million barrel increase favored by Russia.


From here, swelling risk aversion might help gold mount a more significant recovery. Signs of escalation in the Sino-US trade war have weighed heavily on sentiment in Asia Pacific trade. S&P 500 futures are now nearly a full percentage point lower before Wall Street returns online. That seems likely to send capital fleeing to the haven of Treasury bonds and pressure yields lower, helping non-interest-bearing alternatives.

The US Dollar is another likely beneficiary of anti-risk capital flows, but not ubiquitously so. The currency may rise against most of its top counterparts but carry trade liquidation will probably see it outpaced by the Japanese Yen. If this keeps it somewhat anchored on average, the lead from falling rates may prove to be a more potent driver for the yellow metal.

As for crude oil, the weekly set of API inventory flow statistics headline the docket Tuesday. The outcome will be judged against expectations of a 2.57 million barrel drawdown economists expect to see in official EIA figures due the following day.Still, headline flow shaping OPEC+ expectations might remain at the forefront and overshadow other would-be catalysts.

Learn what other traders’ gold buy/sell decisions say about the price trend


Gold prices are digesting losses after finally breaking support guiding the uptrend from December 2016. A resumption of the down move that breaches below the 1260.80-66.44 area exposes the December 2017 low at 1236.66. Alternatively, a move back above the May 21 low at 1282.27 opens the door for a retest of former support in the 1302.97-1307.32 area.

Gold price chart - daily


Crude oil prices corrected higher to retest former support as resistance after breaking though the bounds of the uptrend from June 2017. A daily close back above the 66.22-67.36 area is needed to overturn the near-term bearish bias, exposing the 68.64-69.53 region next. Alternatively, push below support in the 63.96-64.26 zone targets the April 6 low at 61.84 next.

Crude oil price chart - daily


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.