News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Find out about the recent history of ISM data, how to track it, and how to trade its release here: https://t.co/MZtBh88nOv https://t.co/pAhXFa1al2
  • The inside bar pattern occurs regularly within financial markets. Incorporating the inside bar strategy can enhance a trader's market analysis. Find out how you can use it from @WVenketas here: https://t.co/E3EWOYTYNw https://t.co/aK98CEpfOH
  • Point 3 is not talked about enough. The bureaucratic - dare I say, Leviathan - in most universities is resulting in tuition prices skyrocketing without adding clear value to the students. https://t.co/WNZIORrfAk
  • Think #amzn will gap higher on Monday after Black Friday and the giant move to online shopping?
  • The exponential moving average (EMA) is a derivative of the simple moving average (SMA) indicator. Compared to the SMA, the EMA weighs recent price changes more heavily than later changes in price. Learn how to incorporate the EMA into your strategy here: https://t.co/w48c0xJXSX https://t.co/xFmhA7ZHqU
  • Traders in the Euro have a big decision to make this weekend: if EUR/USD hits 1.20, will it continue to advance, consolidate or fall back? Get your $EURUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/8hAhguZcEA https://t.co/kwtatozp3z
  • The bullish engulfing candle is one of the forex market's most clear-cut price action signals for reversals and continuation. Learn more about this price action trading signal here: https://t.co/Yg6ecRZZNr https://t.co/9SdceNYUEK
  • The bull flag pattern is a great pattern to add to a forex trader's technical arsenal. Explosive moves are often associated with the bull flag. Learn more about the bull flag pattern here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/imv2PnapzH
  • Defensive stocks have proven critically important when navigating stock market volatility. Find out what are the most defensive stocks here:https://t.co/TMcbMALtbw https://t.co/mmldxxEtsc
  • Dollar Index has broken major uptrend support and risks accelerated losses into the December open. Get your $USD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/Txo8l8S1f1 https://t.co/YLVzP95JH8
Gold Prices Locked in Place as US Dollar, Treasury Yields Diverge

Gold Prices Locked in Place as US Dollar, Treasury Yields Diverge

2018-05-31 03:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices locked in place as US Dollar, Treasury yields diverge
  • PCE inflation data, flat risk trends unlikely to break the deadlock
  • Crude oil prices may fall on EIA inventory, supply trend reports

Gold prices continued to mark time in familiar territory as a recovery in risk appetite presented the same conflicting cues that anchored the yellow metal amid risk aversion, albeit in reverse. Easing concerns about political instability in Italy saw the US Dollar give back some of its recent gains. An accompanying reversal of haven-seeking capital flows sent Treasury bonds lower and buoyed yields however. Taken together, that saw gold’s anti-fiat appeal offset by its role as the benchmark for non-interest-bearing assets.

Meanwhile, sentiment-linked crude oil prices rose, tellingly tracking the recovery in the bellwether S&P 500 stock index. API inventory flow data showing stockpiles added 1 million barrels last week seemed to be ignored. The absence of fresh news-flow building on last week’s comments from Saudi and Russian officials signaling an on-coming easing of output curbs as well as the greenback’s downturn probably helped make the case for near-term recovery as well.

PCE INFLATION, EIA INVENTORY & SUPPLY TRENDS DATA DUE

From here, the Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge headlines the economic calendar. The core on-year inflation rate is expected to tick down to 1.8 percent in April after hitting a 14-month high at 1.9 percent in the prior month. A print broadly in the vicinity of forecasts is unlikely to meaningfully alter standing Fed policy bets and so might pass without fireworks. That coupled with consolidating risk trends might leave gold prices rudderless for now.

Meanwhile, official EIA inventory flow statistics and the agency’s monthly report on supply trends might weigh on crude oil prices. Stockpiles are expected to see a tepid inflow of 244k barrels. An outcome closer in line with the API projection may apply downside pressure. If that is coupled with signs of selling shale output in the monthly report – an outcome foreshadowed by surging rig count data – selling pressure may return in force following yesterday’s brief reprieve.

See our quarterly gold price forecast to learn what will drive the trend through mid-year!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices continue to be wedged between rising trend support set from December 2016 (1291.17) and a falling trend line in play since mid-April (1300.84). A breach of support initially targets the 1260.80-66.44 area. Alternatively, a daily close above resistance exposes next major hurdle at 1323.60.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are attempting to mount a rebound from support in the 66.22-67.36 area. A daily close back above the April 19 high 69.53 opens the door to challenge the May 22 top at 72.88. Alternatively, a push through immediate support as well as the rising trend boundary at 63.96 paves the way for a test of 61.84.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES