CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:
- Crude oil prices rise as soft ISM caps US Dollar advance
- Gold prices correct higher after dropping to 2-month low
- US job report may stoke retracement of Fed-linked moves
Speculation about US monetary policy continues to be the dominant driver for commodities prices. A disappointing service-sector ISM print was cheered, with traders probably hoping that it will foreshadow a slower tighteningpath.
An upswing in risk appetite pulled crude oil prices higher alongside the bellwether S&P 500 stock index. Meanwhile, the US Dollar fell alongside front-end Treasury bond yields. Gold prices had been on the path to recovery earlier in the session and managed to hold on to most of them despite volatility at the close.
ALL EYES ON US JOBS DATA
The spotlight now turns to April’s US employment report, which is expected to show that job creation accelerated while wage inflation held at a firm 2.7 percent on year. Anything shy of a dramatic deviation may open the door for profit-taking on recent moves, with the greenback retreating as commodities rise.
See our quarterly crude oil price forecast to learn what will drive the trend through mid-year!
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices corrected cautiously higher. A daily close above former support at 1323.60 exposes the next upside barrier at 1333.42. Alternatively, a move below the 1302.97-08.65 (March 1 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) exposes the 1273.14-82.84 zone (38.2% level, trend line from December 2016).
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices continue to oscillate in a range below the $70/bbl figure. A move =below support at 67.36 exposes former resistance at 66.22. Alternatively, a daily close above the April 19 high at 69.53taregts the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 71.24 next.
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES
- Learn what other traders’ gold buy and sell bets say about the price trend
- Having trouble with your strategy? Here’s the #1 mistake that traders make
- Join a Trading Q&A webinar to answer your commodity market questions
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter
To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE