Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.


Speculation about US monetary policy continues to be the dominant driver for commodities prices. A disappointing service-sector ISM print was cheered, with traders probably hoping that it will foreshadow a slower tighteningpath.

An upswing in risk appetite pulled crude oil prices higher alongside the bellwether S&P 500 stock index. Meanwhile, the US Dollar fell alongside front-end Treasury bond yields. Gold prices had been on the path to recovery earlier in the session and managed to hold on to most of them despite volatility at the close.


The spotlight now turns to April’s US employment report, which is expected to show that job creation accelerated while wage inflation held at a firm 2.7 percent on year. Anything shy of a dramatic deviation may open the door for profit-taking on recent moves, with the greenback retreating as commodities rise.

See our quarterly crude oil price forecast to learn what will drive the trend through mid-year!


Gold prices corrected cautiously higher. A daily close above former support at 1323.60 exposes the next upside barrier at 1333.42. Alternatively, a move below the 1302.97-08.65 (March 1 low, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) exposes the 1273.14-82.84 zone (38.2% level, trend line from December 2016).

Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Win Back Ground After US Payrolls


Crude oil prices continue to oscillate in a range below the $70/bbl figure. A move =below support at 67.36 exposes former resistance at 66.22. Alternatively, a daily close above the April 19 high at 69.53taregts the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 71.24 next.

Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Win Back Ground After US Payrolls


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE