News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here:
  • While the meetings of central bankers in the US, Japan and the UK will be front, left and center of traders’ minds this coming week, it would be wise not to ignore next Sunday’s German Federal Election. Get your euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here:
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • GBP/USD’s consolidation could end soon if price breaks out of a symmetrical triangle in play since July. At this time, a downside breakout is likely following the appearance of a death cross. Get your weekly $GBP forecast from @DColmanFX here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • The Federal Reserve rate decision is likely to sway the near-term outlook for the price of gold as the central bank appears to be on track to scale back monetary support. Get your weekly gold forecast from @DavidJSong here:
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Rise as the FOMC Cools Hawkish Excess

Crude Oil, Gold Prices May Rise as the FOMC Cools Hawkish Excess

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • Commodity prices fell in pre-positioning for the FOMC rate decision
  • Crude oil price range holds but gold seems to have broken downward
  • Markets may be primed for a more hawkish Fed tone than is realistic

Worries about an accelerated pace of Fed interest rate hikes seemed to define price action benchmark commodities. Crude oil and gold prices tracked lower alongside bellwether S&P 500 futures while the US Dollar rallied and the priced-in 2018 rate hike path implied in Fed Funds futures steepened.

The cycle-sensitive WTI contract faced dual headwinds, with fears that aggressive tightening will go too far in cooling economic activity compounded by de-facto selling pressure since prices are denominated in USD terms on global markets. The yellow metal suffered amid the ebbing appeal of anti-fiat alternatives.


Needless to say, all eyes now turn to the FOMC policy announcement, where traders will look for official rhetoric to ratify the hawkish shift in baseline forecasts over the past two weeks. If Chair Powell and company deliver accordingly, commodities are set to suffer further.

Two weeks of aggressive repositioning might have markets primed for a more assertive stance than policymakers are prepared to hazard. That may translate into a bit of disappointed divestment from the “hawkish Fed” narrative, which might allow commodities a bit of a recovery in the near term.

Elsewhere on the docket, EIA inventory data is expected to show a meager inflow of 840.5k barrels last week. An API estimate published yesterday begs to differ, calling for a gain of 3.43 million barrels. If official statistics hew closer to that reading, oil prices may prove to be especially vulnerable.

See our quarterly crude oil price forecast to learn what will drive the trend through mid-year!


Gold prices punctured critical support in the 1307.63-08.65 area (3-month range floor, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion), opening the door for a test of a rising trend line set form December 2016. A daily close below that and the 38.2% level at 1273.14 would mark a major bearish reversal. Alternatively, a reversal back above 1308.68 has scope for a retest of Triangle bottom support-turned-resistance at 1316.42, followed by a former inflection point at 1323.60.

Spot gold daily price chart


Crude oil prices continue to tread water in a narrow range below the $70/bbl figure. A break below its floor at 67.36 initially targets resistance-turned-support at 66.22. Alternatively, move above the April 19 highat 69.53 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 71.24.

WTI crude oil daily price chart


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.