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Gold Price Rebound May Continue as Yields Fall in Risk Off Trade

Gold Price Rebound May Continue as Yields Fall in Risk Off Trade

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

  • Gold prices snap losing streak as bond yields fall in risk-off trade
  • Crude oil prices drop with shares, Macron/Trump presser helps
  • Futures signal continued risk aversion, EIA inventories data due

Gold prices edged up as sentiment soured in Wall Street trade, sending capital fleeting for the safety of Treasury bonds and weighing on yields. That offered a familiar lift to non-interest-bearing assets epitomized by the yellow metal. Crude oil prices fell in with the same dynamic as the WTI benchmark tracked the bellwether S&P 500 stock index downward.

Hopes for cooling tensions with Iran also hurt energy prices. French President Emmanuel Macron voiced support for negotiating a new nuclear disarmament deal with Tehran in joint presser with US President Donald Trump. The latter has voiced sharp criticism of the accord signed by the Obama administration. Mr Macron seemed to be signaling Europe’s willingness to be flexible to keep the US on board.

STOCK FUTURES FLASH “RISK-OFF”, EIA DATA DUE

Looking ahead, EIA inventory flow data is on tap. That is expected to show US crude stockpiles shed 1.27 million barrels last week. An analogous private-sector estimate from API predicted a 1.1 million barrel gain instead. An official result that hews closer to that outcome may see oil prices extending recent losses. Meanwhile, gold may extend gains as stock index futures hint at continued risk aversion ahead.

See our quarterly gold forecast to learn what will drive prices through mid-year!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices corrected higher after three days of losses but stopped conspicuously short of breaking back above support-turned-resistanceat 1333.42, the April 13 low. That paints the advance as corrective within the context of a broader down move, at least for now. A daily close above the barrier exposes the underside of a recently broken rising trend line at 1343.68. Alternatively, a daily push below swing low support at 1321.37 paves the way for a test the range floor at 1307.63.

Gold Price Rebound May Continue as Yields Fall in Risk Off Trade

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The appearance of negative RSI divergence preceded a turn lower for crude oil prices, as expected. A break of near-term rising trend support now hints a bearish bias shift, with a break below support-turned-resistance at 66.22 exposing another inflection point at 63.96. Buyers would need to manage a daily close above the April 19 high at 69.53 to invalidate immediate downside pressure.

Gold Price Rebound May Continue as Yields Fall in Risk Off Trade

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

See our guide to learn about the long-term forces driving crude oil prices

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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