News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Myth or fact? One thing is for sure, there are a lot of misconceptions about trading. Knowing the difference between common trading myths and the reality is essential to long-term success. Find out about these 'myths' here:
  • What are some monetary policies that could affect Gold this quarter? Get your Gold free forecast here: #DailyFXGuides
  • Even more remarkable than the record high levels of leverage registered in US equities this past week was the attention it garnered. Paying attention to risk is a threat when markets are this high and the docket as dense as it is this week. My outlook:
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here:
  • Are you new to trading? Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising different forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Get a refresher on technical analysis or begin building your knowledge here:
  • USD hegemony is at risk thanks to changes in the global economy and the long-term consequences of the US-China trade war. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge:
  • The formation of several bullish technical patterns suggests that the haven-associated Japanese Yen is at risk of further losses against the Euro and Australian Dollar. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • Natural gas is moving lower after weather models pointed to warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the US. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:
Can Gold Prices Continue to Ignore US Dollar, Fed Rate Hike Bets?

Can Gold Prices Continue to Ignore US Dollar, Fed Rate Hike Bets?

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • Gold prices rise despite stronger US Dollar, firming Fed outlook
  • Crude oil also higher, echoing broad-based upshift in commodities
  • Beige Book survey, EIA inventory flow figures now in the spotlight

Gold prices proved to be remarkably resilient yesterday, finishing the day with a narrow increase despite a recovery in the US Dollar and a steepening of the priced-in Fed interest rate hike outlook. Those forces might have been expected to weigh on the perennial anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing asset.

The yellow metal saw a bit of selling pressure early in the day but brushed these headwinds aside, rising alongside a broad-based upswing in raw-materials prices. Crude oil prices also participated, with both moves tracking a coordinated rise in global commodity market benchmarks.

A clear catalyst for the move is not apparent. That it began just as Wall Street came online may point to a latent response to Chinese GDP data. It saw growth holding at 6.8 percent on-year whereas leading surveys warned of a slowdown before the release. Local markets brushed off the print amid lingering worries about monetary tightening.


Looking ahead, the Fed Beige Book of regional economic conditions is on tap. If it reinforces optimism on display in recent comments from US central bank officials, gold may retreat as rate hike bets continue to firm. A risk-on bias hinted in S&P 500 futures may compound pressure as bond yields rise.

Meanwhile, crude oil is eying EIA inventory flow data. Stockpiles are expected to have added 393.6k barrels last week. API predicated a 1.05 million barrel draw yesterday however. If official figures print closer in line with the private-sector estimate, prices may rise.

See our quarterly gold forecast to learn what will drive prices through mid-year!


Gold prices are making time below resistance in the 1353.87-57.50 area (double top, falling trend line). A daily close above that exposes the July 2016 high at 1375.15. Alternatively, a push through near-term rising trend support – now at 1338.17 – sees the next major downside barrier marked by range support at 1307.25.

Can Gold Prices Continue to Ignore US Dollar, Fed Rate Hike Bets?


Crude oil prices paused to digest losses after reversing from resistance in the 66.63-67.49 area (January 25 high, rising channel top, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion). Support is at 63.90, the 23.6% level, followed by a rising channel floor at 62.63. Alternatively, a push back above 67.49 targets the 50% Fib at 70.38.

Can Gold Prices Continue to Ignore US Dollar, Fed Rate Hike Bets?


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.