Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil, gold prices mark time as liquidity ebbs into holiday lull
  • Technical positioning hints at weakness when participation returns
  • Weekend news-flow, US data anticipation may translate into gaps

Commodity prices marked time as investors settled in for market closures in observance of the Good Friday holiday. Australia, Hong Kong and most of Europe’s largest exchanges remain closed through Monday, making for thin liquidity.

While that might delay any significant trend development until Tuesday, traders would be wise to keep an eye on weekend news-flow for the possibility of gapping when participation levels begin to rebuild. Pre-positioning for top tier US data including ISM and payrolls releases may also front-load volatility.

See our free guide to learn what are the long-term forces driving crude oil prices!


Gold prices paused to digest losses having dropped after producing a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern, as expected. A daily close below the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1325.29 sees the next downside barrier at 1317.84, the 61.8% level. Alternatively, a turn back above the 38.2% Fib at 1332.73 exposes the 23.6% expansion at 1341.94 anew.

Crude Oil, Gold Prices Positioned for Weakness Into Holiday Lull


Crude oil prices are stalling at chart support but a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern continues to hit a double top is in place. Breaching the 23.6%Fibonacci expansion at 63.90 on a daily closing basis exposes channel floor support at 61.23. Alternatively, turn above resistance in the 66.63-67.49 area (January 25 high, 38.2% level) targets the 50% Fib at 70.38.

Crude Oil, Gold Prices Positioned for Weakness Into Holiday Lull


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE