Talking Points:
- Crude oil prices may get lift from inventory data after FOMC-led drop
- Gold prices look to Fed-speak for direction as key support loom ahead
- See our guide to learn what are the long-term forces driving crude oil
Commodity prices weakened as expected after hawkish minutes from January’s FOMC meeting fed fears of an aggressive Fed rate hike cycle. That soured investors’ mood, sending sentiment-sensitive crude oil prices lower alongside the S&P 500 stock index. Gold also suffered as the US Dollar rose alongside bellwether 10-year Treasury bond yields, sapping the appeal of anti-fiat and non-interest-bearing assets.
From here, a round of speeches from Fed officials may keep US policy bets in the spotlight. Comments from presidents of the New York, Atlanta and Dallas are due to cross the wires. The markets remain in a worried state, with futures tracking US equity benchmarks pointing tellingly lower. Rhetoric underscoring growing confidence in reflation might encourage follow-through of yesterday’s momentum.
On the data front, EIA inventory flow statistics are on tap. An increase of 1.8 million barrels in crude stocks is expected. A private-sector estimate from API showed a draw of 907k yesterday, but the result was obscured by macro-level developments. A similarly supportive result on the official report might have a bit more market-moving potential absent bigger-ticket scheduled event risk.
Find out here what retail traders’ gold buy and sell decisions hint about the price trend!
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices are within striking distance of support in the 1312.36-16.50 area (38.2% Fib retracement, support shelf), with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test of the 50% level at 1301.19. Alternatively, a move back above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 1356.23 targets the 1366.06-71.50 zone (January 25 high, 50% expansion).
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices continue to edge toward support at 60.6, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. A daily close below that opens the door for a test of the 38.2% level at 59.37. Alternatively, a rebound above resistance in the 62.72-63.41 area (February 20 high, former support) puts the spotlight on the January 25 high at 66.63 once again.
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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