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Crude Oil, Gold Prices Biased Upward in Thin Holiday Trade

Crude Oil, Gold Prices Biased Upward in Thin Holiday Trade

Ilya Spivak,
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Talking Points:

Crude oil prices echoed broad-based risk sentiment trends on Friday, oscillating in moves that mirrored the benchmark S&P 500 stock index and ultimately finishing the day little-changed. Gold prices corrected lower as the US Dollar rebounded, undermining the appeal of anti-fiat alternatives.

On balance, the moves appeared to reflect digestion of the preceding week’s volatility, as expected. Last week’s underwhelming US CPI data has resurrected the trends prevailing before the market-wide shakeout in early February. The implications of that are decidedly USD-negative.

Looking ahead, market closures in China and the US for the Lunar New Year and Presidents’ Day holidays respectively have drained liquidity and might make for choppy price action. While this might derail immediate trend development, the path of least resistance probably favors higher commodity prices for now.

Find out here what retail traders’ gold buy and sell decisions hint about the price trend!


Gold prices were rejected lower on a test of resistance at 1356.23, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A turn lower from here sees the first layer of major support in the 1312.36-16.50 area (38.2% Fib retracement, support shelf), with a break below that exposing the 50% level at 1301.19. Alternatively, a daily close above 1356.23 sees the next upside threshold in the 1366.06-71.50 zone (January 25 high, 50% expansion).


Crude oil prices are attempting to secure a break above the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion at 61.64. Confirmation of a breach on a daily closing basis opens the door for a test of the 63.41-85 area (former support, 23.6% level). Major support remains at 57.25, the 38.2% Fib retracement, with a turn below that exposing the 50% threshold at 54.36.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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