News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/bS9seqXadu
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZjVIG https://t.co/qmPQdsjX7b
  • OECD Chief Economist Boone says we think Chinese fiscal and monetary authorities have the capacity to buffer the shock from Evergrande (3333 HK)
  • Ethereum (ETH/USD) - Heavily oversold CCI - see prior CCI/price re-action - and a bullish hammer candle forming - will need confirmation. #Ethereum #eth #candlesticks @DailyFXTeam https://t.co/rfTZE76Dm3
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sr63f https://t.co/erYA8KfqEo
  • Coming up at half past. Please join me if you can. I'll be looking at the charts of all the major markets, checking out the confidence reports on the calendar this week and the IG client sentiment data https://t.co/fMUUMsgwGr
  • OPEC+ compliance with oil cuts rises to 116% in August - two sources #OOTT
  • Join @MartinSEssex at 5:30 EST/9:30 GMT for a webinar on trading sentiment. Register here: https://t.co/CX9djlpMya https://t.co/mgkbDgiM0Y
  • 🇸🇪 Riksbank Rate Decision Actual: 0% Expected: 0% Previous: 0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-21
  • 🇮🇩 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 3.5% Expected: 3.5% Previous: 3.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-21
Crude Oil Prices Shrug Off Negative News Flow, Gold Eyeing ISM

Crude Oil Prices Shrug Off Negative News Flow, Gold Eyeing ISM

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

Crude oil prices marched steadily higher, shrugging off news that Exxon Mobile plans to triple its US oil production by 2025 and an IEA forecast predicting slowing demand in 2018. News wires linked the move to EIA data showing a surprise drop in gasoline inventories, but that seems implausible. The same report showed a massive crude storage build however, plus the rally started hours before the figures hit the wires.

Indeed, raw-material stocks added a hefty 6.78 million barrels last week, marking the largest inflow since early March 2017. It seems like a more plausible explanation for the upswing is a retracement driven by shorter-term, opportunistic capital flows triggered after prices dropped to the lowest level in over a week and broke out from the confines of their near-term uptrend.

Gold prices edged up as the US Dollar retreated following an underwhelming State of the Union speech from President Donald Trump. A slightly hawkish FOMC policy statement revived the greenback but failed to translate into substantive losses for the yellow metal, with corrective flows following the preceding days’ losses probably tipping the scales.

The US manufacturing ISM survey is now in focus. Expectations point to a slowdown in factory-sector activity. A recent run of disappointments in realized data outcomes relative to forecasts warns that analysts’ models may be too rosy, opening the door for an even grimmer outcome. If this cools Fed rate hike bets, gold may have scope for further gains.

Find out here what retail traders’ gold trade decisions hint about the price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices continue to languish in consolidation mode but a bearish breakout registered earlier in the week remains intact. Near-term support is inthe 11316.50-25.96 area (January 4 high, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement), with a daily close below that exposing the 50% level at 1301.19.Alternatively, a turn back above 1344.74-53.79 (support-turned-resistance, trend line) paves the way for another challenge of the January 25 high at 1366.06.

Crude Oil Prices Shrug Off Negative News Flow, Gold Eyeing ISM

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil prices are attempting to launch a rebound after funding support above the $63/bbl figure. A daily close above support-turned-resistance in the 64.15-65.12 area (January 15 high, 23.6% Fib) opens the door for a retest of the January 25 highat 66.63. Alternatively, a turn back below the January 31 low at 63.64 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 62.62.

Crude Oil Prices Shrug Off Negative News Flow, Gold Eyeing ISM

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES