Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to recieve updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from Daily FX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage you subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Talking Points:

Crude oil prices marched steadily higher, shrugging off news that Exxon Mobile plans to triple its US oil production by 2025 and an IEA forecast predicting slowing demand in 2018. News wires linked the move to EIA data showing a surprise drop in gasoline inventories, but that seems implausible. The same report showed a massive crude storage build however, plus the rally started hours before the figures hit the wires.

Indeed, raw-material stocks added a hefty 6.78 million barrels last week, marking the largest inflow since early March 2017. It seems like a more plausible explanation for the upswing is a retracement driven by shorter-term, opportunistic capital flows triggered after prices dropped to the lowest level in over a week and broke out from the confines of their near-term uptrend.

Gold prices edged up as the US Dollar retreated following an underwhelming State of the Union speech from President Donald Trump. A slightly hawkish FOMC policy statement revived the greenback but failed to translate into substantive losses for the yellow metal, with corrective flows following the preceding days’ losses probably tipping the scales.

The US manufacturing ISM survey is now in focus. Expectations point to a slowdown in factory-sector activity. A recent run of disappointments in realized data outcomes relative to forecasts warns that analysts’ models may be too rosy, opening the door for an even grimmer outcome. If this cools Fed rate hike bets, gold may have scope for further gains.

Find out here what retail traders’ gold trade decisions hint about the price trend!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Gold prices continue to languish in consolidation mode but a bearish breakout registered earlier in the week remains intact. Near-term support is inthe 11316.50-25.96 area (January 4 high, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement), with a daily close below that exposing the 50% level at 1301.19.Alternatively, a turn back above 1344.74-53.79 (support-turned-resistance, trend line) paves the way for another challenge of the January 25 high at 1366.06.

Crude Oil Prices Shrug Off Negative News Flow, Gold Eyeing ISM

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – Crude oil prices are attempting to launch a rebound after funding support above the $63/bbl figure. A daily close above support-turned-resistance in the 64.15-65.12 area (January 15 high, 23.6% Fib) opens the door for a retest of the January 25 highat 66.63. Alternatively, a turn back below the January 31 low at 63.64 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 62.62.

Crude Oil Prices Shrug Off Negative News Flow, Gold Eyeing ISM

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak