Talking Points:
- Crude oil prices drop with stocks, may extend losses in risk-off trade
- Gold prices break down as markets look to State of the Union speech
- See our guide to learn what are the long-term forces driving crude oil
Crude oil prices succumbed to risk aversion (as expected), with the WTI contract tracking lower alongside US shares. FTSE 100 and S&P 500 futures are pointing sharply lower before London and New York come online, hinting at more of the same ahead. API inventory flow data is also on tap and will be sized up against bets on a 98.7k barrel build to be reported in official EIA figures on the following day.
Gold prices declined as the US Dollar launched a recovery, sapping the appeal of anti-fiat assets. The greenback perked up amid speculation that President Donald Trump will unveil a big-splash infrastructure spending plan in his first State of the Union address due later today. The prospect of inflationary fiscal stimulus buoyed Treasury yields while the priced-in rate hike path implied in Fed Funds futures steepened.
Find out here what retail traders’ gold trade decisions hint about the price trend!
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Gold prices turned lower as expected after putting in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern reinforced with negative RSI divergence. A break of trend line support set from mid-December now hints a significant trend reversal is at hand. A break below the 1316.50-25.96 area (January 4 high, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) exposes the 50% level at 1301.19. Alternatively, a move back above 1344.74-47.60 (support-turned-resistance, trend line) targets the January 25 high at 1366.06.
Chart created using TradingView
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Crude oil prices are testing trend line support set from mid-December, with negative RSI divergence warning that a downturn may be ahead. A break below the 64.15-86 area (trend line, January 15 high, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) initially exposes the 38.2% level at 62.62. Immediate resistance lines up at 66.63, the January 25 high.
Chart created using TradingView
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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