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Gold Prices Echo US Dollar Weakness, Crude Oil Gains with Stocks

Gold Prices Echo US Dollar Weakness, Crude Oil Gains with Stocks

2018-01-15 08:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

Gold prices pushed higher as the US Dollar failed to capitalize on even as CPI data showed core inflation unexpectedly accelerated in December. The outcome buoyed Treasury yields while the Fed rate hike outlook steeped but the greenback’s recent inability to find strength in tightening bets continued, with the anti-fiat yellow metal enjoying support by extension.

Meanwhile, cycle-sensitive crude oil prices advanced amid a broad improvement in market-wide risk appetite. Indeed, the WTI benchmark telling tracked the S&P 500 upward. US retail sales figures may have accounted for the chipper mood. While December’s figures printed broadly as expected, strong upward revisions of November’s data made for a rosy picture. Indeed, consumer-discretionary shares led the way higher.

Looking ahead, US market closures for the Martin Luther King Jr Day holiday hint at quiet consolidation until participation rebuilds Tuesday. Still, the possibility for stray headline risk to trigger kneejerk volatility from over-the-counter assets including gold warns against complacency, particularly as a number of key political narratives continue to develop in the background.

What are the forces driving long-term crude oil price trends? Find out here!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are testing resistance at 1342.49, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that exposing 1353.03 (trend line from July 2016, 50% level). Alternatively, a reversal back below the 23.6% Fib at 1329.45 paves the way for a retest of the January 10 low at 1308.38.

Gold Prices Echo US Dollar Weakness, Crude Oil Gains with Stocks

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to put pressure on the 50%Fibonacci expansionat 64.32, with a daily close above that opening the door for a test of the 61.8% levelat 66.33. Alternatively, a move back below the 38.2%Fib at 62.31 targets the 23.6% expansion at 59.83 anew.

Gold Prices Echo US Dollar Weakness, Crude Oil Gains with Stocks

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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