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Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices may break deadlock on monthly OPEC and EIA reports
  • Gold prices look toward progress on US tax cut for directional guidance
  • How are our Q4 crude oil and gold forecasts holding up? Find out here

Crude oil prices continued to mark time below $58/barrel absent a clear-cut catalyst to establish direction on Friday. The deadlock may be broken as OPEC issues its monthly assessment of compliance with cartel-led production cuts while the EIA publishes US drilling productivity statistics. Taken together, the two reports ought to inform on global glut reduction prospects.

Gold prices edged down a bit but failed to break from a choppy range prevailing for the better part of the past month. A lull in pertinent top-tier data flow might see speculation about the fate of US tax reform and its implications for Fed policy in the spotlight. A breakthrough in efforts to reconcile Senate and House proposals might send the yellow metal lower while continued deadlock could offer a degree of support.

Retail traders expect gold to rise. Find out here what this hints about actual price trends!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices are testing the lower bound of a would-be bearish Triangle chart pattern once again. A daily close below this threshold – now at – would then expose the 1260.80-61.50 area (October 6 low, 50% Fibonacci expansion). Alternatively, a move above Triangle resistance at 1295.43 paves the way for a challenge of the October 16 high at 1306.04.

Crude Oil Prices Eye OPEC, EIA Reports to Inform Global Glut Bets

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to tread water near resistance marked by the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 57.57. A break above this barrier confirmed on a daily closing basis exposes the 50% level at 58.71. Alternatively, a turn back below the 23.6% Fib at 56.17 opens the door for a retest of the January 3 highat 55.24.

Crude Oil Prices Eye OPEC, EIA Reports to Inform Global Glut Bets

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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