News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.55%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 80.61%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/YelFfA2Vst
  • 🇮🇩 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 3.5% Expected: 3.5% Previous: 3.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-20
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/5xuwJi0xvX
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.02% Silver: 0.36% Gold: -0.14% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/3QhJMfTWva
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.65% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.58% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.39% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.13% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.03% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.30% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/3ngNFGV4CH
  • Heads Up:🇮🇩 Interest Rate Decision due at 07:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 3.5% Previous: 3.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-20
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.13% US 500: 0.08% Germany 30: -0.16% France 40: -0.19% FTSE 100: -0.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/cmd7UutJDY
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/bg5cVcLvvW
  • (Commodities) Gold Prices Seesaw as US Dollar, Treasury Yields Diverge Before Netflix Earnings #Gold #XAUUSD #USD #Bonds https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2021/04/20/Gold-Prices-Seesaw-as-US-Dollar-Treasury-Yields-Diverge-Before-Netflix-Earnings.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/aYDFImOCGw
  • 🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change (MAR) Actual: 10.1K Previous: 86.6K https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-20
Crude Oil Prices Struggle as Trump Trade Optimism Loses Steam

Crude Oil Prices Struggle as Trump Trade Optimism Loses Steam

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Crude oil prices hurt risk appetite fizzles with “Trump trade” optimism
  • Gold prices hold range floor as US Dollar, Treasury bond yields retreat
  • US PMI survey roundup, API weekly inventory flow data now in focus

Crude oil prices continued to move in lockstep with broader risk appetite trends, with a gap higher at the weekly trading open failing to find follow-through as sentiment soured. The S&P 500 stock index traded lower and the WTI benchmark followed.

Investors might have rethought Friday’s exuberance. That was driven by hopes that a Senate budget resolution would pave the way for an economic growth pickup fueled by tax cuts. Perhaps they were reminded of the Trump administration’s struggle to legislate despite Republicans’ Congressional majority.

Tellingly, gold prices turned higher while front-end US Treasury bond yields declined and the US Dollar retreated. This seemed to reinforce the sense that souring “Trump trade” prospects accounted for the overall tone across benchmark asset classes over the past 24 hours.

Baseline fundamentals may re-take the spotlight tin the day ahead as October’s US PMI data roundup as well as API crude oil inventory flow statistics hit the wires. An upbeat print on the former may rekindle Fed rate hike speculation. The latter will be judged against bets on a 2.45 million barrel drawdown.

What are the forces driving long-term crude oil price trends? See our guide to find out!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices continue to hover in a consolidation range between the October 19 low at 1276.31 and the following day’s high at 1291.06. A break upward exposes the 50% Fibonacci retracementat 1309.15. Alternatively, a push below support targets the 38.2% Fib expansion at 1269.10.

Crude Oil Prices Struggle as Trump Trade Optimism Loses Steam

Chart created using TradingView

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices are still looking for direction below resistance in the 52.86-53.23 area (September 28 high, 38.2% Fibonacci expansion). Breaking this barrier on a daily closing basis sees the next upside barrier at 54.51, the 50% level. Alternatively, a move below rising trend line support at 50.66 opens the door for a retest of 49.10, the October 6 low.

Crude Oil Prices Struggle as Trump Trade Optimism Loses Steam

Chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES